Americas天然气：伯恩斯坦新电力模型确认我们看涨天然气展望...海恩斯维尔活动不阻碍我们

Americas Natural Gas: New Bernstein Power Model helps confirmour bullish gas outlook...Haynesville activity doesn't deter us Bernstein has recently launched on Americas Power and Energy Transition (The AmericanEnergy Transition: Grid, Gas, and Green - Sector Initiation - Power and Energy Transition)including a proprietary US power model. That new forecast strongly informs our gas demandinto power. We update our US gas model accordingly and update most recent data acrosspower, LNG, other demand and supply. We reiterate our long term mid-cycle gas price deckof $5/mcf . Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Minnie Xu+1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com We argue gas demand growth is 3 pronged: Raphael Lee+1 917 344 8355raphael.lee@bernsteinsg.com - As LNG capacity continues to expand, LNG liftings will grow in tandem from ~18 bcfd inearly 2026 to ~33 bcfd in late 2030 (Exhibit 17). - We project aggregate power demand to grow at a 2.6% CAGR through 2030 (Exhibit 2),with gas making up a large percentage of the fuel mix (Exhibit 3). - As supply increases (but also remains disciplined), we expect losses from extraction, plantuse, and distribution to consume more gas linearly (Exhibit 9). We continue to highlight supply discipline in the Permian(the largest source of gasgrowth associated with shale oil drilling) as well as the Appalachia basin (Exhibit 11).Since the start of 2024, Permian and Appalachian rig counts are down 25% and 21%,respectively. We also observe thetick up in rigs in the Haynesvillethat suggest increased activity, butwe argue that this growth comes from operators with traditionally lower IPs (Exhibit 15). We actually saw declines in rig count from higher quality operators in theHaynesvilleincluding GEP and EXE (Exhibit 16), with major growth coming from APEXNatural Gas (formerly Paloma Natural Gas), operators with historically lower gas productionper well in the cohort we benchmarked in our previous note, Americas Energy & Transition:What the future decades hold for the Haynesville Shale. Our Permian gas outlook has been updated with increased future takeawaycapacity...with more capacity coming online from expansions such as the Transwesterndesert pipeline expansion from 1.5 to 2.3 bcfd and the 2.8 bcfd Saguaro connector pipeline(Exhibit 19). We provide a summary to the updates we made from our previous model (Exhibit 10). We continue to see significant upside in Henry Hub-levered equities (EQT, EXE, DVN). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We believe that $5/mcf is the appropriate mid-cycle price for Henry Hub. As such we continue to see significant upside in HenryHub-levered equities (EQT, EXE, DVN) which we are rate out perform. DETAILS LONG TERM - SIGNIFICANT GAS DEMAND GROWTH TO 2030 We remind investors of our long term bullish thesis (The Long View: A US gas supercycle is coming...we upgrade gassy E&Ps). Without invoking industrial, commercial or residential demand growth, we forecast ~24% growth in gas demand by 2030 on theback of LNG exports, power demand and growing the volumes of gas supply required to distribute the new gas demand. As we update our US power model, power demand growth provides significant growth in gas demand used in generation. EXHIBIT 2:We expect aggregate US power demand to grow at a 2.6% CAGR from 2025-2030... Obviously, one of our pillars for gas bullishness is the growing use of gas for power demand (both AI and other end uses). Suchdemand growth did not arrive in 2025 mostly due to coal switching (AE&T: What coal stole explains the majority of the summergas price move...but winter is coming). We explicitly include such switching but argue additional coal switching is limited (Coal/gas switching matters... for gas bulls it's a modest impact, and higher gas means higher rail rates). As data center build outprogresses, we expect power demand for gas to grow ~2 bcfd in 2026 rising towards ~6 bcfd by 2030 from 2025. We notethat power demand for gas this year is entering the strong demand season well above last year and even above the previousrecord year of 2024. While recom demand should be seasonal and flattish. To achieve more than150 bcfd by 2030 requires heavy lifting by the constrained Permian (41% growth), constrainedAppalachia (13% growth), Haynesville (65% growth) and even so the balance isn’t met - we believe $5/mcf is required toconvince the upstream to deliver the required molecules. Our summary of the US gas landscape to 2030 is shown below. We contrast our current model with the previous edition (December 2025). Marking 2026 to market creates more demand thanpreviously expected. 2030 values rise signficantly on LNG projects and is trimmed by a slightly lower power demand forecast. In terms of supply, 2026 supply changes add significantly to Haynesville with other basins unchanged. We still see 2026demand higher than 2026 supply which anticipates stronger prices towards year end. 2026 B