Simply Good Foods (SMPL) 2026年第三季度业绩研究

Simply Good Foods Co/The RatingMarket-Perform Price Target 12.00 USD SMPL Simply Good Foods (SMPL): 3Q:26 Earnings Simply Good Foods is likely to remain immersed in turnaround efforts for some time: This quarter’s significant beat on sales and EBITDA is expected to give way to lower-than-expected sales and EBITDA next quarter, so we’re not out of the woods yet. Managementemphasized that the turnaround is still a work in progress, and it could take some time toaddress multiple execution problems. Meanwhile, freight cost inflation is starting to take off,whey and other dairy proteins are still a headwind, and there is still significant uncertaintyaround the potential consumer reaction and price elasticity associated with the high-single-digit price increase that is coming in September. We remain on the sidelines for now. It seems that there are still significant changes to strategy and resource allocationthat need to be applied to each brand:For Quest, chips remain strong at 17% growththis quarter, but bars were down -5% even with the benefit of a club store rotation thatwas not present last year. It seems that innovation has not followed where the consumerhas headed in recent years, and there has been a lack of effective advertising to supportthe superior nutritional credentials and craveability. Atkins seems to be suffering from adeliberate reduction in advertising spend, which was considered excessive by the previousmanagement team, but is now being reinstated. And OWYN still seems to have a set ofSKUs that now need to be rationalized to refocus on the core powders and shakes products.This could all take time to unpick.Meanwhile, the company is pedaling hard on costreductions,which makes sense, given the resurgence in input cost pressures. But it couldmake the going tougher on the turnaround. That said, category growth for “purposeful nutrition” categories remains strong at+10%despite SMPL’s -6.7% reduction in sales this quarter, which suggest that it is indeedexecution that is the challenge here rather than underlying demand. Then again, we worrythat both Atkins and Quest have rather more complex ingredient lists than some consumersmay be willing to adopt, which could call for more reformulation activity. Last quarter, management took top and bottom line guidance for the year down significantly, and also guided downvery sharply for this quarter:This was done on April 9, almost halfway through 3Q. So it was a little surprising to then findthat instead of sales being down -11 to -14% as per last quarter’s guide, sales came in down just -6.7%, broadly in-line withmeasured channel data. Similarly, instead of EBITDA being down -32% to -38% year-over-year, it came in down just -22.5%YoY. We hope that management visibility into the underlying trajectory of the business improves over time as execution picks up. Top-line sales beat this quarter, but gross margins lagged.Revenues of $357.0m were 7.2% above consensus estimates.Net sales declined -6.3% YoY, driven down by both Atkins and OWYN, and was a sequential acceleration from the -9.4% salesgrowth seen last quarter. The adjusted gross margin of 32.5% was -66bp below consensus and down -386bp YoY—/a declinefrom the 338bp YoY seen last quarter. Adjusted EBITDA of $57.2m came in 17.8% above consensus and down -22.5% YoY,while EPS of $0.42 was a 7c beat and down -18.3% YoY. FY guidance was slightly raised after being significantly lowered last quarter,with management now expecting net salesto decline between -7% and -6% (vs prior guidance of -2% to +2% and consensus of -8%) and adj. EBITDA to decline between-21% and -19% (vs prior guidance of -22% to -19% and consensus of -21%). Management expects 4Q sales of $326m at themidpoint (vs consensus of $336m) and EBITDA of $54.5m (vs consensus of $61m). EXHIBIT 1:SMPL 3Q:26 Results Table Source: Company filings, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 2:SMPL FY26E Guidance Table INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate SMPL Market-Perform with a target price of $12 based on 6.1x our 12 - 24 month EBITDA estimate of $228m. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedothe