easyJet同意私有化，欧洲区内航空供应或趋紧

Quick Take: easyJet agrees to take-private. Tighter intra-European supply likely en route easyJet has agreed to a take-private by a consortium led by US-headquartered alternativeasset manager Castlelake, at a price of £6.90 per share. We view the acquirer’s status asa major player in the aircraft leasing business, but not a traditional private equity firm, aslikely indicating a future break-up of the company and separation of its valuable assets: fleet,orders, slots, and Holidays business. While this differs from public statements thus far, if thisis indeed the plan, it indicates further supply tightness in intra-European aviation. That wouldbe helpful for other European airlines, especially the low-cost carriers, as well as UK-focusedleisure business Jet2 (not covered). Alex Irving, CFA+44 20 7676 7044alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com Victor Acitores+34 915 893 901victor.acitores@bernsteinsg.com Tobias Fromme+44 20 7676 6875tobias.fromme@bernsteinsg.com Our initial thinking on the takeover proposal here Antoine Madre+33 1 58 98 74 52antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com easyJet refresher.easyJet is Europe’s second-largest point to point airline, with a 10%share of intra-European capacity. It is heavily UK weighted, and controls valuable slotpositions at key European airports: London Gatwick (with 48% of all flight movements), butalso Paris (CDG+ORY), Milan (MXP+LIN), Geneva, Amsterdam, Lisbon and more. Over thelast few years, the company has built a successful package holidays business, which usesits high direct airline passengers (~100m passengers/year, mostly sold on its website orapp) to sell hotel rooms in an asset-light model, providing a cost advantage vs most OTAs asit does not need to spend anything like as much on traffic acquisition. The bidder and the logic.Castlelake is an alternative asset manager without a longhistory of airline equity investments — really only the temporary involvement in SAS thatwas always likely to be sold on to Air France-KLM. It does, however, have a large aircraftleasing business. We see this as the key to its interest in easyJet, i.e. its fleet of over 200owned aircraft, and an orderbook of c. 180 planes — attractive A320/321neos poweredby LEAP-1A engines. Airlines typically access more attractive prices for planes than lessorsdo, and as one of the largest buyers of A320 family planes, we would expect this certainlyapplies there. In a tight market for capacity, access to the planes earlier enhances the value.easyJet has long struggled to achieve a ROIC in excess of its WACC in the airline segment,and a lessor may be able to generate more value by finding an alternative customer — notnecessarily in Europe. Break-up would tighten intra-European supply.While Castlelake’s stated intentionto support easyJet’s future growth and transformation, we howeversee the most likelyeventual outcome for easyJet as follows: existing operations (in-service fleet, near-termdeliveries, slots, easyJet Holidays) sold largely to the three European network carriers, andat least some of the orderbook finding its way to airlines outside Europe. For the intra-European operations, investors should bear in mind that network carriers, by design,operate with lower asset productivity than point-to-point businesses. The change inbusiness model would reduce capacity. Any orders destined outside Europe wouldevidently reduce European capacity growth. That could conceivably reduce the growth rateof European capacity by c. 0.5%pt — meaningful against a market likely growing c. 3% overthe medium-long term. The biggest beneficiaries are the other European airlines, especiallythe low-cost carriers, as well as UK-focused leisure business Jet2 (not covered). Further relevant information on the deal:A more precise formulation of that easyJet has agreed a take-private is thatCastlelake has proposed a price of £6.90 per share, and that easyJet’s board has concluded that the financial terms wouldrepresent a level it would be minded to recommend to shareholdersifCastlelake announces a firm offer at this price. It has untilclose of business on 3 August to do so. A recommendation would be subject to agreement on all other terms and conditions ofan offer. EXHIBIT 1:A break-up of the company could see easyJet's assets and businesses fetch £7.28 per share in our initialanalysis — arguably conservative, especially with regard to the Holidays multiple easyJet break-up valuation Other slots Slots are not typically traded at other airports where easyJet operates. However, we would expect the ability to grow in airportssuch as Amsterdam, Paris (both), Geneva, Milan (both), Lisbon and Barcelona to be valuable to Europe's network airlines.Sales may be subject to antitrust attention.Assume value of £250m for other slot positions. easyJet Holidays EXHIBIT 2:easyJet has built strong market positions at many of Europe's most important airports, includingseveral slot-constrained ones easyJet daily departures, selected airports, 12