韩国24小时清洁能源电力部门及政策展望

TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary06Section 1:Electricity Market Overview101.1.Market Structure and KEPCO's Role112.4.1.GHG Protocol Scope 2 Revision181.2.Renewable Energy Supply and Demand Pressure12Section 2:Why Hourly Matching Matters for Korea132.1.Hourly Matching and Energy Security142.2.Hourly Matching Provides Signals for ESS162.3.Missing Money in Korea's ESS Market172.4.Trade and Standard Requirements182.4.2.Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)192.4.3.Hourly Matching in Green Hydrogen Regulation212.5.Aligning Korea's Hydrogen Strategy with International Standards222.6.Supply Chain Pressure on Hourly Matching22Section 3:Why Korea's Certificate and Data Infrastructure233.1.Hourly Matching Data Requirements: Implications for Korea243.2.Existing Certification Systems243.3.Data Accessibility Gap253.4.The RPS-to-Auction Transition: A Design Window for Granular Certificates263.5.What Needs to Change26Section 4:Granular Procurement Pathways for Korea284.1.Green Premium304.2.Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs)32 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4.3.Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)32Section 5:Conclusion374.4.Self-Generation344.5.What Can a Korean Corporate Buyer Do Today to Conduct Hourly Matching?36Appendix A:International Regulations on Hourly Matching (Primary Sources)40A.1.EU RFNBO: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/118441A.2.US IRA Section 45V: 26 CFR 1.45V-442A.3.EU CBAM: Regulation (EU) 2023/956 + Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/254743Appendix B:Korean Glossary46Appendix C:Global Hourly Matched Green Premium Provider49A.4.Primary-Source Links43 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1:Average Wholesale Electricity Price Against Share of Carbon-Free Hours,Selected European Markets (2024)14 Figure 2.2:Carbon-Free Percentage Heatmap—South Korea (2023)16 Figure 2.4:GC Capturing Time-shifting Value of ESS18 Figure 2.5:CBAM Emission Rules for Electricity19 Figure 2.7:Three Pillars of Green Hydrogen Regulations22 Figure 4.1:Renewable Energy Procurement Methods in Korea29 Figure 4.3:Electricity Tariff Structure for Regular Users and Direct PPA Users in Korea33 LIST OF TABLES Table 2:Korea's Seven-Agency CBAM Response21 Table 3:Korea's Data Accessibility26 Table 4:Settlement Architecture of Each Procurement Pathway29 Table 5:Hourly Readiness of Each Pathway 35 EXECUTIVESUMMARY Together, hourly accounting and ESS-enabledPPAs could begin to close the gap between Korea'ssolar-heavy generation profile and its eveningdemand peak. Round-the-Clock (RtC) renewables providemajor energy security and price stabilitybenefits. RtC demand pressure is accelerating. KEPCO hasreceived 49 GW of data center grid connectionapplications, with gas co-firing being a majorsource of energy.1Reliance on fossil fuels risksinfrastructure lock-in and exposes Korea’selectricity prices to volatile global LNG markets.2Fossil fuel dependence burdened Korea with US$17billion in electricity costs in 2022 alone, accordingto an estimate from the Institute of EnergyEconomics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).3RtCrenewables hedge against price volatility ofimported LNG by reducing exposure to globalcommodity markets and locking in long-term,predictable energy costs. Hourly matching is becoming the new norm forglobal electricity accounting and greenhydrogen standards. The direction of travel for GHGP Scope 2 protocolsand ISO 14064 is moving towards hourly accountingrequirements. Hourly-matched and physicallydelivered PPAs are required to reduce CBAMcompliance costs. While the current scope onlycovers fertilizer and cement, the cost of CBAM isestimated to go up to USD 588 million between2026 and 2034 under a high EU ETS price scenariofor Korea.7Rigorous hourly matching requirementsare being incorporated into green hydrogenproduction regulations, through the 45V hydrogentax credit in the US and Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO) in the EU. Korea shouldmove faster to enable catch-up with globalstandards on hourly matching. Hourly matching provides market signals forKorea’s energy storage systems (ESS). As of the end of 2024, over 78% of cumulativerenewable capacity is solar.4As midday oversupplyfloods the grid, this creates a steep duck curve.Annual matching masks the mismatch, allowinggreen claims despite the fossil fuel ramp-up duringpeak hours. ESS would be crucial to provide theflexibility and demand response that the gridneeds. Korea's ESS already participates in gridservices through ESS Central Contract Market5,but the economics are challenging. The cost-based pool structure and regulated retail tariffscompress the wholesale price spread that storagedepends on for arbitrage revenue.6Hourlymatching creates a new value stream: corporatepremiums for the "time-shifted" solar for round-the-clock delivery. The Ministry of Trade Industryand Energy (MOTIE, now Ministry of Trade Industryand Resources, MOTIR) Notice 2025-46 is movingin the right direction by allowing ESS facilities toparticipate in Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). Th