中国房地产策略会纪要：上半年业绩疲软后9月起新推盘将放量，回调中维持乐观看法

China Property Conference Takeaways: More Sales Launches From Sep after Weak1H26 Earnings; Positive View Despite Recent Sell-off CITI'S TAKE Griffin ChanAC+852-2501-2438griffin.chan@citi.com 19 property firms attended Citi Conference: Despite recent stock sell-off on10% mom decline of weekly secondary volume & tighter stock marketliquidity on period end, we are increasingly positive on property sector givenresilient volume, low base from Jul-25, more new sales launches from Sep &expected supportive tone in Jul Politburo. That said, with weak 1H26earnings expected, we re-arranged our top pick orders for Jul/Aug: CRL,C&D, Beike, Jinmao & COLI. We are more positive on C&D after its productupgrades, accelerated lands (HZ, Suzhou) & expansion in SZ in Jun. Cindy Li+852-2501-2710cindy.li@citi.com Positive takeaways—[1] sales: 5 names posted >10% sales growth in 5M26 despiteless new launches (on better existing project sales) & plans more launches from Sep;[2] land: reduced land supply in key cities (GFA -30%yoy) pushed up land prices in5M. COLI, Jinmao, C&D slows in 5M26 but will accelerated when land market coolsin 2H26 when supply picks up. CRL is consistently strong; [3] 1H26 earnings risk:COLI, Longfor, Poly, Yuexiu see a high base in 1H25 & margin pressure; CRL relativelystable given REIT spin off in 1H26. [4] 5M26 same-storesalesbeat: +10%/9%yoy forCRL/ Longfor despite weak national retail. [5] policy: expect supportive tone in JulPolitburo after Quishi article on 18 Jun, which calls to stabilize property market; [6]mgmt change: expect new CEO for Greentown & chairman change for COLI in 2H26. Sales: 10%+growth on existing project sales; more launches from Sep—5 names(COLI, Jinmao, CRL, COGO, CMSK) posted >10%yoy sales growth in 5M26 on betterexisting project sales in core cities. We expect yoy growth to continue for 6 names(incl C&D) given more new launches from Sep & low base from Jul-25. Sector overall-15%yoy in 5M given fewer new launches. Sell-through for luxury homes slowed inweak T2 cities given more supply but some upgrade products picked up. Land: reduced supply pushed up prices for quality plots; awaiting 2H window—5M26 land acquisition -48%yoy for listed names given reduced land supply In keycities (300 cities: -32%by GFA, a 20 year low). COLI, Jinmao, C&D, Greentown are toacquire in 2H when supply picks up on better land prices, given a strong 2025. Yuexiu,Poly China are active in 1H26. CRL is strong in SZ. C&D picked up in June (SZ, HZ, etc.). 1H26 earnings risk—We expect down 35-40%yoy on high base in 1H25 (COLI: 68%of FY25 profits in 1H25, Jinmao: 77%, Yuexiu, Seazen, Poly). With margin pressurefrom inventory sales, we expect loss for Longfor & Poly Property. CRL’s recurringincome +8%yoy in 5M with est. Rmb2bn+ REIT disposal gains from Chengdu mall &we est. 1H earnings down 10%. Beike 2Q GTV beat & we estimate earnings +26%yoy. Recurring income: 10% SSSG in 5M; REITs—CRL +10%/ Longfor +9%yoy tenantremix & AEIs. CRL’s REIT spin-off on Chengdu mall added est.Rmb2bn+ gains in 1H. Tour takeaways: Changsha weak but not deteriorating; SZ is good—[1] Changsha:new land supply reduced to 1mn in 5M26 (vs 5.4msm GFA sold in 2025), a 20-year low.Secondary prices were stable at c.Rmb8k in Jan-Jun, not dropping more. With 22months of inventory (& 7 years incl. lands) we expect home price to stay at bottom fora prolonged 3+ years with stable volume. [2] Shenzhen: 100k units at secondary forsales but 50% are listed for more than a year (not a real seller). Sell-through for luxuryhome slows a bit but still strong, as some buyers flow into HK from Shenzhen. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Not for distribution in the People's Republic of China, excluding the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and QualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. Other takeaways: Physical market outlook by Mr. Ding Zuyu, Chairman of SH Proptech Innovations—Mr. Ding noted that physical market has yoy improved in 2026, but unlikely for arapidturnaround.He believes the market bottom to be anchored by pricestabilization in older/smaller secondary units, with the bottoming cycle likelyextending through 2026–2030E and led by core cities (SH/ CJ/ SZ/ GZ/ HZ/ CD, etc).He views the recent“little spring”rally peaked in late May, as project visits andsubscriptions moderated into June, likely due to (i) equity market weakness and (ii)demand pull-forward in Mar–May. He observed a“K-shaped”divergence, with high-end luxury and low-end older/smaller units outperforming mid-tier projects. Newhome sales growth is limited by reduced land supply so national is on decline.Secondary market is stable. After the emerging of “new standard” homes that havinghigher GFA efficiency, the pre-2H24 “old standard” projects are now the weakestsegment to destock. Mr. Ding does not expect any nationwide policy stimulus in2026 but sees big development on REIT market and urban renewals i