联发科和创意电子搭上谷歌，世芯更多后端加载，产能分配是关键

Mediatek and GUC riding on Google; Alchip more back-end loaded andcapacity allocation is key Laura (Chia Yi) ChenAC+886-2-8726-9090laura.cy.chen@citi.com CITI'S TAKE Investors have been optimistic about AI ASIC surpassing GPU in AIcomputing since last year, yet due to a more fragmented supply chain andtightcomponent/material supply,such as wafer foundry,advancedpackaging, HBM and ABF, we expect Taiwanese design service companieswith better supply chain management capability to stand out with positivegrowth outlooks into 2027. We expect Mediatek and GUC to see thestrongest AI ASIC growth momentum into next year. We prefer Mediatekmostthanks to its higher value content upside with its increasingcontribution from I/O, top die and potentially optics and memory custombased die in the longer term. Jack Chen+886-2-8726-9091jack1.chen@citi.com Nicholas Lai+886-2-8726-9093nicholas.lai@citi.com Mediatek - AI ASIC revenue to rise 50% in 2027, continue doubling into 2028—Weestimate Mediatek’s AI ASIC revenue to reach US$18bn in 2027 and expect it to furtherrise to US$40bn in 2028 (from previous expectations of US$13.6bn/18bn for 2027/28)mainly due to higher dollar content increase thanks to its value added not just in I/Odie but also compute die. From 2028, we see Mediatek will contribute more onmultiple chip tile of its client’s chiplet design. Mediatek is also working on multipleopportunities in AI ASIC projects – not only chip design but also hardware L6architecture. We expect its AI revenue to exceed its current existing business in 2 years. GUC - CPU business upside intact in next 2 years; automotive business alsoshowing good potential in 2028—Thanks to solid CPU ASIC demand from its USCSP clients, we expect GUC’s growth into 2027/28 to be stronger with more supplychain support. Its robotic/automotive for US client will also start contributing in late2027/early 2028. Although its customers may look for another foundry’s supportbesides TSMC, we expect GUC’s solid partnership with TSMC to continue to be themain source for the automotive/robotic project. And GUC’s CPU projects’ visibility isintact through 2028. The company is also working on consumer electronics for CSPclient. Along with its interconnect IP and CPO technology, we believe GUC’s ASICbusiness growth trend remains intact. Alchip - new product to kick off in 3Q26, suggest revisiting once 2026expectations reset; 2027 outlook intact—We expect Alchip’s revenue to snapback substantially in 2H26 thanks to its client’s N3 AI accelerator ramp-up.However, due to potential capacity constraints, its client’s COT business model anddiversification strategy, Alchip’s near-term momentum could be capped. Yet GMmay see upside thanks to Alchip’s back-end design contribution for more complexchip design. We would expect stronger 2027 growth once Alchip can secure moreorder allocation and supply. Mediatek remains our favorite stock; Our pecking order: Mediatek > GUC > Alchip—We prefer Mediatek in AI ASIC design service thanks to its better front-end designcapability in advanced node, interconnect, advanced packaging and upstreamsemiconductorsupply chain.We also see GUC’s diversification in AIASIC/automotive/robotic, consumer product projects and strong CPU upside tosupport growth in the next 2-3 years. Alchip’s momentum would be more back-endloaded, and we expect to see better growth into next year. Mediatek- AI ASIC revenue to rise 50% in 2027,continue doubling into 2028 We expect Mediatek to gain further market share in Google’s growing TPUopportunity thanks to its better supply chain management capability andadvanced node design capability. Other than N3 top die, Mediatek has beenworking on global leading 300G Serdes I/O for its next generation AI accelerator.Mediatek is also working on CPO technology with various partners such as AryaLabs and Microsoft in Micro LED CPO light source. With large-scale TPU revenuecontribution, we now expect Mediatek’s TPU shipment to reach 500k/4m/4m in2026/2027/2028 with revenue contribution at US$2bn/US$18bn/US$40bn. Mediatek - Maintain Buy and raise TP to NT$6,055—In the near term, despitesmartphone demand remaining lukewarm, thanks to better ASP we expectMediatek to beat its 2Q revenue guidance and see c5% sequential growth in 3Q26.We slightly lower our 2026/2027 earnings projections mainly on smartphoneweakness yet lift our 2028E earnings by 9%. We also raise our target price fromNT$5,950 to NT$6,055 (35x PER to 2027/2028 EPS, which is 1.5-std above its 3-year average forward P/E given the promising outlook from its AI ASIC businessstarting from 2H26). © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, company data GUC- Solid order visibility into 2028 We note that there is rising concern about GUC’s CPU ASIC order sustainability andpotential foundry strategy diversification from its major clients. In our view,although its customers may look for more foundry sources’ sup