法拉利限量版手动变速箱车型发布的投资影响分析

Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Ferrari NV Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 402.00 USD RACE Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Ferrari: Manual(e) for Success Ferrari confirmed after market on 3 July the launch of the limited-edition Special Series12Cilindri Manuale. This“uses the group’s new, patented, Manuale by-wire system,conceived and developed in Maranello to reinterpret the manual shifting experience througha contemporary technological architecture.”The base retail price in Italy is €590,000,a €200,000 premium over the standard 8-speed automatic12Cilindri. 1,499 units willbe produced and all have already been allocated to Ferrari clients. Despite former ChiefCommercial Officer Enrico Galliera’s assertion that there are no plans for a Manuale versionof the 12 Cilindri Spider,“We came to the conclusion that the coupe is the one that representsthe purest Ferrari execution”, we are not convinced. Ferrari employs the “no plans” or “wedo not comment about future models” phrasing right up to when the covers come off thenext model. Given both its delirious reception and that many of Ferrari’s best customers willnot have gained an allocation, we expect Ferrari to announce at a later stage a 12CilindriManuale Spider, at potentially half the volume of the coupe run, so maybe an additional 750units, priced from say €700,000, a healthy premium to the coupe version. Of the €200,000initial premium charged for the 12Cilindri Manuale coupe, we estimate the incremental fullycosted R&D and manufacturing cost to be under €50,000 per vehicle. This suggests some~40bps of potential group contribution margin uplift per year in 2027-29. The 12Cilindri Manuale will be exclusively delivered through Ferrari’s invitation-only TailorMade programme which offers a much higher degree of personalisation than is possiblethrough the standard dealer specification process. This suggests that the final MSRPs ofthese vehicles will be substantially higher - we would estimate closer to €800,000+ pervehicle. Ferrari states that the first customer deliveries are set for 1Q27. Bernstein viewThe potential launch of a manual gated version of the 12Cilindri has beenone of the most talked about topics within the Ferrari community this year, and moved intooverdrive while the massively polarizing Ferrari Luce BEV was being launched towards theend of May. As we noted in our report from 2 June discussing a 12C manual (link), this wasa timely reminder of how Ferrari remains on track despite the firestorm of opprobrium thatgreeted the Luce (link). We had expected 12C M reveal to coincide with Ferrari’s 29 June to 6July Venice to Athens Cavalcade, and this duly occurred.(Continued on Page 2) Investment Implications We retain our Outperform rating on Ferrari and a $402 PT DETAILS (Continued from Page One) The pricing of the 12Cilindri Manuale, and it's positioning within the Tailor-Made programme has everything to do with owningone of the most desirable Ferrari cars in recent years rather than with the incremental cost of the manual transmission thatoverlays the 12Cilindri’s current 8-speed dual-clutch automatic transmission. Without even taking into account an additionalSpider model that could deliver say another 750 units, we estimate that over three years on the basis of 500 coupes per year,the annual incremental drop through contribution could be in the order of €75m or an extra ~40 bps to the EBIT margin. Assuch, it will be another contributor to the increasingly hard to ignore mix improvement that we believe will cause Ferrari tocomfortably exceed the revenue and EBIT growth targets it set out last October in its 2026-30 plan. THE ALLURE OF THE MANUAL Ferrari has not built a road car with a manual transmission since 2012, when the 599 GTB and California came with theoption of traditional six-speed gated manual transmissions. In recent years, the most prestigious segments of the automotiveindustry have seen a resurgence in demand for supercars with manual gearboxes, including the Pagani Utopia, GMA T.50, andKoenigsegg’s CC850, as well as for slightly more accessible cars with manuals, like the Porsche 911 GT3 and 911 Carrera T. The values of old Ferrari and Lamborghini cars with manual gearboxes have increased at a parabolic rate in recent years. Atypical Ferrari 599 GTB Fiorano with the new generation F1 SuperFast automatic gearbox will be listed at around €120,000– €150,000 in Europe, whereas the much rarer original factory-fitted manual 599 is in the €600,000 to ~€1,000,000 rangedepending on provenance and mileage. When the 599 was first launched in 2007, the price for cars with the gated manualtransmission was around the same price as for the F1 Superfast automatic transmission. Customer demand overwhelminglyfavored the F1 Super