全球存储芯片周报：Meta芯片订单情况、CXMT DRAM应用、韩国芯片集群影响、日本供应链调研及三星2Q初步业绩

Weekly theme: Meta/CXMT/Korea risks,Japan trip takeaways, Samsung 2Q OP Industry Overview 02 July 2026 Meta’s memory chip order cutMemory chipmakersbelieve Meta will keep using more actively HBM, LPDDR5, eSSD, EquityGlobalTechnology etc. for its AI data centers. Thus, the Street’s speculation on“Meta will rent overlyinvested AI servers or cloud infrastructure”should be groundless. In fact, some AI supplychain companies (e.g., NAND controller IC providers, substrate material manufacturers,etc.) said Meta’s long-term chip/component orders are getting stronger. Chipmakers saidMeta can share its own data centers with external customers as a cloud service providerbut this does not translate into excess capacity; it can be a business objectivediversification using more advanced memory chips. Simon Woo, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)+82 2 3707 0554simon.woo@bofa.com Dai Shen>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)dai.shen@bofa.com CXMT’s DRAM for iPhone Wedo not expect Apple to meaningfully adopt CXMT’s DRAM. Three reasons: (1) US’srestriction on China semis, (2) DRAM quality to meet Apple’s specs (10Gbps+ speed,1.1V power consumption, ECC function), and (3) DRAM IPs owned by major Korean/USchipmakers (litigations if Apple uses less patented chips). True, CXMT can target low-endiPhone 18e but actual DRAM order won’t be significant, given weak sales volume of low-end iPhones in China (high-end more popular). Apple may try to use CXMT’s DRAM toincrease bargaining power when it negotiates 2H or 2027 contract prices with Korea/USbig-3 DRAM makers, though actual purchasing volume (from CXMT) remains small. Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japanmikio.hirakawa@bofa.com Matt Shin>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)matt.shin2@bofa.com Peak concern following Korea’s cluster construction planSome investorssaid the Korea government-led new memory fab cluster construction spending W800tn in the country’s southwestern region (e.g., Kwangju) signals a peak ofmemory cycle. However, we do not expect meaningful chip production volumes by 2033(see report). It is a long-term plan after focusing on Youngin/Pyeongtaek fab clusterexpansion (2026-35). Overall, we don’t see yet any capex-driven memory cycle peak,given strong/diversified enterprise chip demand (HBM, SOCAMM, eSSD, etc.). Exhibit1:DDR5 stable, DDR4 reboundedforfour consecutive weeks; NAND flat orslightly downSpot prices– DRAM and NAND What we learned from our Japan trip We met Japan investors andNAND supply chain companies this week. The investorswere broadly bullish on memory but frequently asked potential downturn given currentlystrong industry growth. In fact, corporate management provided more bullish guidance,suggesting (1) upbeat 2Q ASP (particularly NAND), (2) still rising trend of 3Q/4Q ASP vs2Q, (3) 2027 shortage (DRAM, NAND), (4) rising LTA (but still volume-centric), (5)disciplined capex and chip production volume (mainly for Japan NAND). Samsung’s 2Q preliminary OP AI: Artificial intelligenceASP: Average selling priceCXMT: ChangXin Memory TechnologiesDDR4/5: 4th/5thgen double-data rate DRAMDRAM: Dynamic random-access memoryECC: Error correction codeGbps:Gigabit per secondHBM: High bandwidth memoryIC: Integrated circuitIP:Intellectual propertyLPDDR5: Low-power DDR5LTA: Long-term agreementNAND: Not-AND memorySOCAMM: Small-outline compressionattached memory module Samsung Electronics’2Q preliminary OP (due 7 July) is likely to be slightly lower than thebullish consensus due to special bonus (including 1Q) and smartphone margin squeeze.Memory-only OP can exceed consensus due to upbeat ASP–consistent with Korea’sstrong exports. DRAM spot/contract price also rebounded further in June. Korea exports and TrendForce memory ASP forecast Exhibit2:Significant jump in Jun (US$44.8bn; +21% MoM); more than3x higher than 2025-average (US$14bn)Korea semis exports-US$bn/month Exhibit3:YoY rebound surged to +199% in Jun; already six consecutivemonths of triple-digit growthKorea semis exports-YoY change in monthly US$bn Exhibit5: TrendForce has revised down its 2Q26 NAND ASP forecast to55–60% QoQ (from 70–75%), while raising its 4Q26 outlook to 10–15% QoQ from the earlier 8–13% rangeTrendForce NAND ASP forecast (QoQ change) – Jun-26 update vs Mar-26 TrendForce DRAM ASP forecast (QoQ change) – Jun-26 update vs Mar-26 Exhibit7: Similarly, our NAND assumptions are either conservative orbroadly aligned with TrendForce, with ASPs expected to grow 65% /13% / 1% QoQ across 2Q–4Q26BofA vs TrendForce NAND ASP assumptions (QoQ change) Hyperscale capex and cloud revenue/margins Exhibit9:Record-high capex spend by allUShyperscalers expected tocontinue in 2026-27E; no capex cut in 2027Hyperscalers’capex growth–YoY change Exhibit8: Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet,andMetakeep increasingcapex spend - ~80% YoY in 2026 to reach ~US$0.7tn; near-US$1tnannual capex expected in 2027-28E; Meta’s growth also