多头与空头辩论：探讨竞争、AI、多组学与存储器成本

Ilumina, Inc. June 30,2026 Bull/Bear Debate: Addressing Competition, Al,Multi-OmicsandMemoryCosts with renewed investor interest (bulls citing X placements/clinical pull-through,multi-omics and Al), the bear case (competition, ex-U.S., memory costs) stillrevolves around underlying growth rates amidst increasing competition andhow muchfurtherthe multiple can expand from here. Backdrop. ILMN has been one of the better-performing tools stocks (+38% YTD), outpacing largecap peers (A, WAT) and others in the A&G-heavy basket (+27% for BRKR, albeit well below TXG+124%).With shares tradingat 20x'27 EV/EBITDA,the debatehas shiftedto whetherthere is roomfor multiple expansion given competitive pressures and price declines.Fundamentally,thebusinesshas continued to execute, including a 1Q revenue beat (+s20M) with instrument revenues +16% y/y,supported by 80+ NovaSeq Xs (albeit with heavy discounting), however, attention is now turning tothe implied +300 bps of OPM expansion in 2H, amidst memory component pressures and Roche'sAxelios launch this week. Bulls. 1) strength in numbers. ILMN continues to put up quarterly beats, driven by NovaSeq X(80+ systems in 1Q,2Q installs expected at similar levels) and is seeing more clinical placements(vs. 6000 trade-ins) with upside potential in 2H as fleets come online; 2) Biolnsight. Launched late'25, Biolnsight is the next pillar in moving ILMN beyond a hardware vendor to a strategic data andAl partner for biopharma, with collaborations secured with AZN, MRK and LLY. While lumpy nearterm, ILMN expects a +1-2% contribution to'27 growth alongside multi-omics, with further upsideas billion+ cell projects (So.01+ per cell) translate to revenues and pharma ramps up R&D spendingto train LLMs; and 3) multi-omics. ILMN continues to build out theportfolio of multi-omic productsin spatial, proteomics and long reads (TruPath Genome = +1-2% of growth by'27). While the near-term impact is modest, spatial interest, in particular, is high (see our recent KOL call). Bears.1) competition.On Monday,Roche (ROP Sw) announced that Axelios has enteredcommercial phase with installations underway. Roche's manufacturing footprint and global supplychain are differentiators, posing it as a credible threat in the high-throughput market; 2) ous.While ILMN has downplayed German clinical sequencing reimbursement cuts (>30-40%), drivenby declining equipment/reagent costs, Germany represents a MSD% of revenues (i.e.5% = s217Min '25) and could set a precedent for broader reimbursement scrutiny (notably, on the back of theCRUSH initiative in the U.S.). Separately, despite Jacob Thaysen accompanying POTUS to China,there has been no indication ILMN will be removed from the UEL, while the recent addition ofNovogene (one of the largest outsourced NGS providers)to the Section 1260H list bythe DoD addsadditional uncertainty; 3) clinical X transition. With the ongoing clinical transition to X, near-term6k consumables may be overstated as labs run multiple systems in parallel; and 4) memory costs.While higher memory costs were baked into guidace, these are expected to create pressure in 3Qabsorbed, memory inflation could be a >50 bps and potentially 100 bps margin headwind, raising>25% OPM (+178 bps y/y) in '27, shares trading at 19x EV/EBITDA look fairly valued and trade2x above the diversified tools group, including companies that could see faster topline growth (A,WAT). TychoPeterson*|EquityAnalyst+1 (212)738-5583|tpeterson2@jefferies.com Matthew Stanton*|EquityAnalyst+1 (615) 963-8397Imstanton@jefferies.com Lauren Timmins,Ph.D.*|Equity Associate+1 (929)237-2038 (mobile) I ltimmins@jefferies.com NoahKava *|Equity Associate+1(212)323-3939Inkava@jefferies.com JackMelick,CPA*EquityAssociate+1 (617) 345-86711jmelick@jefferies.com Priya Patel*Equity Associate+1 (332)204-01401ppatel5@jefferies.com Jefferies Company DescriptionIlumina, Inc. Illumina is a global leader in sequencing- and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis. The company's products and services serve customers ina widerangeofmarkets, enablingtheadoptionofgenomic solutions in researchand clinicalsettings.Customers use lllumina'splatformsto perform whole-genome, de novo, exome and RNA sequencing, and targeted resequencing of specific gene regions and genes. CompanyValuation/RisksIlumina, Inc. Our S125 PT is supported by our DCF and implies 4.4x26E EV/revs Downside Risks: headwinds from China, NIH funding and tariffs, inability to innovate atpace of competition, inelastic consumer demand curve,failure to maintain strategic partnerships. Upsiderisk: stronger academic budgets,increased uptake for new product cycles. Analyst Certification:I, Tycho Peterson, certify that allof the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies).Ialso certify that no part ofmy compensation was,is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recomm