贸易与资本流动：霍尔木兹海峡 vessel 恢复渐进、AI 驱动亚洲贸易激增及美国关税变动

Global In recovery Trade data and policy tracker +Vessel traffic recovery via the Strait of Hormuz will be gradual.+...while Al investment is driving the surge in Asian trade same based on proposals, but more duties could be announced A US-lran peace deal has been struck and the Strait of Hormuz is reopening, but the roadtorecoverywill bebumpy.Vesseltrafficthroughthestraithaspickedupsincethedealwas signed, with 29 vessels moving through the waterway on 22 June 2026 (mostlyoutbound) according to shipping data (chart 12). Our oil analysts estimate that more than4mbd of crude oil has crossed the Strait over 17-21 June, about one-fifth of pre-conflictlevels (Oil markets, 23 June 2026). TradeEconomistHSBC Bank plcshanella.l.rajanayagam@hsbc.com+44 20 3268 4118Prachi Mathur If the strait does indeed stay open, it could take three months or more for flows to go backto a more'normal' pattern. Much will depend on how quickly mines are cleared, vesselsrepositionand deal withcongestion,and insurancecostsbecomemoremanageable.ButIran declared the strait closed again days after the interim deal was signed,and itsPersian Gulf Strait Authority announced vessels need a permit to transit and that itreserves the right to introduce insurance fees in the future. AssociateBangalore 89% of chief economists surveyed by the WEF in May 2026 expect growth to weakenover the next 12 months (chart 4), while our global economists expect world GDP to growby2.5%this year,from2.8% in2025(Global Economics:Crosscurrents,22June2026) Meanwhile, container shipping volumes out of Asia have been strong sofar this year (up9% y-o-y over January to April), while an early peak container shipping season (tomitigate summer disruption and on the back of US IEEPA tarfrelief) could see freightrates trend higher for longer (chart 8, 19-21). More disruption could also be in store. Gatun Lake water levels (a key part of the PanamaCanal) are forecast to decline by about onefoot in the coming months. And although thePanama Canal Authority does not anticipate restricting vessel transits through thewaterway this year, it is prepping for the possibility that El Nino could impact water levelsand transits in H2 2026 and 2027 (charts 33-36). New US tariffs of 10-12.5% are due to kick-in next month to replace the temporary 10%Section122tariff,thoughwedonotexpectthe USeffectivetariffratestoshiftmuchunderthe new regime (chart 23). That said, more duties could follow, with several trade probesstill in progress. Charts 26-32 look at what US businesses are saying about China tariffs. This month we also focus on the bright spot in global trade: Al (charts 54-79). The Alboom has boosted Taiwan's and Korea's (and mainland China's) exports each month, butmuch of this is a price story, though volumes have also held up. This is ourlatest reporton theTrade &Capital Flows theme.If you wanttosubscribetoanyof ourninebigthemes,clickhere Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plcViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosures&Disclaimer Thisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsinthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Shared circuits: HowAlis redrawing Asia's trade map,25 June 2026Asian Economics Quarterly: Still runnin', 24 June 2026Oil markets:Hormuztracker:Flows recover,constraints remain,23 June2026,available onthe Research websiteGlobalEconomicsQuarterly:Crosscurrents,22June2026Brace for El Nino: Asia Chart of the Week, 19 June 2026Global Freight Monitor: US-lran Deal: Tankers rebalance, sticky container rates, 18 June 2026,available on the Research websiteGlobal Transport: Impact of Middle East conflict-Xll, 16 June 2026, available on theResearchwebsiteTaiwan in focus:What the latest electronics indicators mean for Asia,12 June 2026100 days later: The key macro charts as conflict rumbles on, 9 June 2026A third pillar of trade?: EU-CPTPP co-operation, 9 June 2026Podcast:The MacroBrief:Stateof US tariffs,4 June 2026US tariff announcement: First tranche of investigations completed,3 June 2026Exports soaring, narrowly: Asia Chart of the Week, 29 May 2026Waitingfora deal:Tradedata andpolicytracker,26May2026 Contents Did you miss?2Monthly trade trends3Trade policy calendar21Status ofkey tradedeals22 Disclosure appendix24 Disclaimer26 8.Exportvolumes out ofAsia havebeen strong sofar this year...Change in container volumes from region (YTD April 2026) 9....withvolumesonsomelanesholdingupdespitetheMiddleEastconflict Change in container volumes by shipping lane since Iran conflict (Feb to Apr 2026) Source: Macrobond. Note: Latest data for 21 June 2026. Top US goods exempted from tarffs (2025 data) 26. The bulk of US companies operating inChina have been impacted by tariffs... 27. ...with this being one of their top threecost concerns thereTop cost concems in China 28. Most businesses impacted by tariffs have absorbed the costs chains by diversifying or localising...US companies r