H-2B签证计划对美国工人就业和工资的影响

The Impact of the H-2BVisa Program on the Stephen Bronars EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study examines the impact ofan increase in the hiring ofseasonal foreign guest workers throughtheH-2B visa program on the employment and wages ofdomesticworkers in the U.S.The estimates of theprogram’s impact in this study improve on estimates in previous studies in several ways. First, by makinguse Whileprevious studies haveattempted to estimateeitherthe state-wideor nationwide impact of theH-2Bprogram,our empirical analyses focus on the local impact of the programin the areas that rely most onH-2Bworkers.Because the H-2B program is smallrelative to the overall size of the U.S. workforce, and This study finds no empirical evidence that the increase inannually issuedH-2B visas had a negative employmentgrowthandhigherwage growth among U.S. workers.Ourbaselineempirical analyses show •Across all workers inthe local area,each additional H-2B worker in a local area is associated withthe employment of2.7 to 4.9 additional full-time-equivalent U.S. workers. Importantly, we find no significant effects of an increase in H-2B workers on the wages oremployment of workers with a high school degree or less.H-2B seasonal guest workers do not appear to takeaway the jobs or depress the pay of workers with a high school degree or less.Instead,H-2B workers appear This view, that theH-2B program is used by employers to fill gaps in the labor market that are unlikelyto be filled by the domestic workforce, is reflected in the responses to a survey undertaken for this study. operations,even followingtheprogram’svisa capincrease, but the bureaucratic process often results in The final section of the report shows that the way in which H-2B prevailing wages are set furtherlimits the potential positive impact of the program on economic growth in areas that tend to face seasonallabor shortages. First, H-2B wages are typicallyhigher thanthe market wage of a seasonal or temporary Edgeworth Economics is one of the world’s leading economic consultancies, distinguished for our work inthe areas of Antitrust, Class Certification, Consumer Protection, Intellectual Property, and Labor andEmployment.When the world’s top law firms and companies face their highest stakes challenges in our coreareas, they turn to Edgeworth for unparalleled economic analysis and expert testimony. Our in-house team About Stephen Bronars Dr. Bronars is a sophisticated researcher, with extensive experience in academia and public policy. Hepreviously led the Department of Economics at the University of Texas and has held faculty positions at Dr. Bronars publishes widely on the topics of labor economics, econometrics, and microeconomics. Hiscommentary has been included in the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Bloomberg, among others. He has also CONTENTSExecutive Summary..............................................................................................................................1Introduction.........................................................................................................................................5H-2B Program: Background...................................................................................................................7Economic Impact of the Effects of Migration and Immigration: Economic Theory.....................................9A Survey of H-2B Employers................................................................................................................11How Do Employers Use the H-2B Program.......................................................................................11How Does the H-2B Program Affect Business Decisions...................................................................13What Issues Do Employers Encounter In The H-2B Hiring Process.....................................................16Data Relied Upon for the Empirical Analyses of the Impact of H-2B Visa Workers...................................17OFLC Disclosure Data and H-2B Employer Data Hub.......................................................................17American Community Survey..........................................................................................................20Current Employment Statistics.......................................................................................................22H-2B Visa Program: Summary Statistics..............................................................................................22Regression Specification....................................................................................................................30Regression Results.............................................................................................................................34H-2B Prevailing Wages are Higher than Market Wages..........................................................................37Pay Differences Across Occupations Can Vary Substantially Across Area