中国原油库存将在2026年5月下降
Weekly:Chinacrude oil inventorydrawdown in May 2026 Industry Overview 22 June 2026 China crude oilinventory drawdown in May ‘26China’s NBS released May 2026 energy production data. Crude coal and natural gas EquityChinaEnergy output reached 397mnt and 21.7bcm, down 1.5% and 2% YoY, respectively. We estimateapparent demand at ~430mnt for coal and ~35.1bcm for gas, implying ~2% and 1% YoYdeclines. Crude oil output was 18.5mnt (~4.3mbd, broadly flat YoY), while apparentdemand fell to ~51.4mnt (~12.1mbd, -21% YoY) amid weaker imports. Refinerythroughput declined to 53.7mnt (-9.1% YoY), suggesting first crude inventorydrawdowns since Feb 2025, consistent with reports that refiners have been tappingstockpiles to offset lower imports and subdued demand. Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4001matty.zhao@bofa.com Yiming Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5037yiming.wang@bofa.com Coal: mine-pit thermal coal prices increased; HCC edged upDuring the weekended 18 Jun 2026, the QHD 5,500kcal price was flat WoW at RMB863/t. Thermal coal prices at mine in Inner Mongolia (Kcal5.5k)/Shaanxi (Kcal5.8k)were +2.6%/ +3.2% WoW to RMB631/ 712/t, respectively. Ports inventory (Northern+Southern) was -2.2% WoW to 23.13mnt as of 18 Jun 2026. Inventory at the six majorIPPs was up 1.6% WoW to 14.0mnt, daily-burn decreased by 5.0% WoW to 778kt. TheNEWC 6,000K price was -3.3% WoW to US$144.0/t, at a 24% premium to the QHDprice. The Liulin No.4 HCC price was 2,040/t, up 3.0% WoW. According to Sxcoal, as of18 June, 48 coking coal mines across five cities in Shanxi remained suspended, involvingaround 53.5mntpa of capacity. The number of suspended mines was down 71 vs. 25May, while suspended capacity fell by 81mnt compared with 25 May. Peter Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7185peter.wang2@bofa.com Edward Leung, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3282edward.leung@bofa.com Miriam Chan, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7478miriam.chan@bofa.com Oil& Gas: Brent fell below $80/b amid the US-Iran deal Yibing Xia>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 8045yibing.xia@bofa.com Oil:Brent oil decreased by 7.7% WoW to US$80.6/b and WTI oil prices decreased by9.8% WoW to US$76.6/b, during the week-ended 19 Jun 2026. The WTI discount toBrent expanded from US$2.5/b to US$4.0/b. Dirty VLCC (from Arab Gulf to China)dayrate jumped to USD227.2k/day.Gas:The US Henry Hub natural gas price was up3.6% WoW to US$3.23/mmbtu; the Netherlands TTF natural gas price was down 10.2%WoW to US$14.18/mmbtu, and the JKM was down 18.8% WoW to US$15.32/ mmbtu. See the Appendix for a list ofabbreviations used in the report Teapot refiners runrate slide further; Chemical prices drop Refining:China’s refining margin (one-month crude price lag) in Jun’26 was negativeUS$1.9/b verse US$10.6/b in May’26, per our calculation. The run-rate of independentrefineries in Shandong in the week ended 19 Jun2026 has down 2.9ppt. WoW to 45.7%.SOE refineries runrate edged up 0.3ppt. WoW to 67.5%. Petrochemicals:North Asia naphtha prices decreased by 3.8% WoW to US$674/t. Overthe same period, ethylene prices were down 3.3% WoW to USD871/t, while propyleneprices decreased by 0.5% WoW to USD1,071/t. Downstream, LLDPE was down 5.6%WoW to USD1,008/t, while PP prices was down 5.8% WoW to USD1,133/t. Weekly updates Coal Exhibit1:ASPatcoalminepitsThermal coal prices at mine in Shanxi (Kcal5.5k)/Inner Mongolia Exhibit2:ASPatQinhuangdaoport(Kcal5,500)As of18 Jun, ASP of QHD 5,500kcal was flat WoW at RMB863/t (Kcal5.5k)/Shaanxi (Kcal5.8k) changed 0%/ +2.6%/ +3.2% WoW to RMB720/631/ 712/t as of 18 Jun2026 Exhibit3:NEWC 6,000K thermal coalNEWC 6,000K thermal coal was -3.3% WoW to US$144.0/t as of 19 Jun 2026 Exhibit4:Liulin No. 4 hard coking coal price (incl. VAT)Liulin No. 4 hard coking coal price was RMB2,040/t, up 3.0% WoW, during the week ended 18 Jun 2026 Exhibit6:ChinasixmajorIPPs(unit:kt)Inventory at the six major IPPs edged up 1.6% WoW to 14.0mnt, daily-burn Exhibit5: Ports inventory (Northern and Southern)Ports inventory (Northern +Southern) was -2.2% WoW to 23.13mnt as of 18 decreased by 5.0% WoW to 778kt Jun 2026 Exhibit8:YTDChinacoalproductionChina coal production was 397mnt, down 1.5% YoY in May ‘26 Chinacoalsocialinventoryup4%MoMto716mntbyApr’26 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Exhibit10:As of20Jun, inflow was 15,000cm,16%lowerthan 2005-25 averageTG reservoir water storageinflows Exhibit9:China monthly coal importsTotal coal (including lignite) imports was 33mnt. down 7.7% YoY in May ‘26. Oil Brent oil decreased by 7.7% WoW to US$80.6/b and WTI oil prices decreased by 9.8%WoW to US$76.6/b, during the week-ended 19 Jun 2026. The WTI discount to Brentexpanded from US$2.5/b to US$4.0/b. Factors supporting oil prices include the following: •The US total oil inventory (one-week lag) was down 17mb WoW to 758mb throughthe week ended 12 Jun 2026.