红塔证券（601236）持有收益增长依赖投资收入，可能是风险

Hongta Securities (601236 CH) Hold: Earnings growth relying on investment incomelikely a risk China ◆Investment income could be an earnings drag this year◆We reduce our 2026-28 net profit estimates by 8.0-9.6%◆Maintain Hold; cut TP to RMB7.70 (from RMB8.50) MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE(CNY)PREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)7.708.50SHARE PRICE(CNY)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE6.82+12.9%(as of05 Jun 2026) Businesses under pressuredespite decent investment income;are-ratingcould be hindered.Hongta’s share price has fallen 11.4% over the past 60 tradingdays (vsthe CITIC Broker Index down 8.6% over the same period). We believe theunderperformanceis due to the following factors, which are also in line with ourprevious views: (1) Hongta relies on investment income, but the weak equity andderivatives market in 1Q26 may lead to below-par earnings; and (2) the transition inits brokerage and asset management businesses can not translate into a newearnings growth driver yet. However, we note that itsfocus on high-risk businesses(e.g.,derivatives) could have an impact on its future growth potential if regulation onrisk control tightens, and the high base of proprietary trading income in 2025 couldweigh on its overall earnings growth this year. If Hongta could overcome theseissues, there could be re-rating opportunities; otherwise, we see potential downsidefor the stock. Earnings growth likely to slow in 2026 due to the high base in 2025.We expectin 2026: (1) Hongta’s investment income growth to slow to 4.7% y-o-y on last year’shigh base, which could weigh on net profit growth this year; (2) asset managementrevenue to decline 24.7% y-o-y, given the volatility ofthewealth managementbusiness, despite Hongta’s effortstoallocate toalternative products, such asderivatives; and (3) brokerage revenue toincrease 11.9% y-o-y, thanks to rapidlyrising market turnover. Overall, we expectnet profitto drop 3.9% y-o-y this year. We reduce our 2026-28 net profit estimates by 8.0-9.6%,as we now expectsubstantially lower derivatives investment income following the market-driven assetfair value losses YTD. Therefore, welower our 2026-28e brokerage revenue by 6.3%each to reflect the high base in 2025 and the uncertaintyinthe equity marketin avolatile global environment. Meanwhile, we now expect negative fair value changes for2026-28, factoring in the volatile derivatives investment income. We cut our 2026-28einterest income by 25.8-34.4%, mainlytoreflectandisappointing margin tradingbusiness last year and the sequentially slower growthinthe margin trading marketsince the Chinese New Year in 2026. Angel Sun* (Reg. No.S1700519080001)Head of A-share Financials ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedangel.y.sun@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2015 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Hold; cut TP to RMB7.70 (from RMB8.50).We continue to use a DDMmodel to value the stock. Based on our revised 2026-28 earnings estimates, we cutTP to RMB7.70 (from RMB8.50). Our TP implies c13% upside from current levels.We maintain Hold rating given Hongta’s high reliance on derivatives investmentincomeand our expectation of lower and more volatileprofits in 2026. Seepage3forkey risks. Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Qianhai Securities Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation: Hongta Securities (601236 CH) Note: Price at close of5Jun2026Source: HSBC Qianhai Securities Valuation As HSBC Qianhai Securities is the only broker that covers Hongta Securities, our estimates arepredictive and lackreferential consensus data. We see increasing uncertainty in its income fromits proprietary trading business amid rising market volatility, while its focus on high-riskinvestment (e.g.,derivatives) makes its earnings even more volatile vs peers. Meanwhile, withregulations on derivatives and other high-risk businesses likely to tighten going forward, we seepotential downside for the stock. Otherwise, there could be re-rating opportunities. Valuation changes We lower our average revenue growth estimate from 9.4% to 8.8% in Stage II, to reflectpossible revenue decline due to the company'sover-reliance on high-risk investments. ◆We lower our average operating cost estimate for Stage II to 28% (from 30%), as we expectthe company’s overall operating costs to decline given the recent pay cut in the financialindustry and the company’s strict control over operating costs for certain businesses thatare unlikely to be expanded over the near term (e.g.,investment banking). ◆Based on our latest earnings estimates, we cut Hongta's target price to RMB7.70 (fromRMB8.50). Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primar