经济学：早间晨报

Date5 June 2026 Economics Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy Jim ReidGlobal Head of Macro and ThematicResearch+44-20-754-72943 Key MarketData (Index @ Close // Change)(S&P 500 @ 7584 // +0.41%)(STOXX Europe 600 @ 624 // +0.52%)(iTraxx Crossover @ 261 //-2)(Brent Oil^ @ 95.32 //-1.58%)(10yr Treasury^ @ 4.47 //-1 bp)(10yr Bund @ 3.02 //-1 bp) Henry AllenMacro Strategist+44-20-754-11149 Peter Sidorov, CFASenior Economist+1-585-615-0253 Asim KaulResearch Associate *** A reminder about DB Research’s latest World Outlook, which is called “1999meets 1990”. The title reflects the interplay of AI-driven optimism and the disruptiveeffects of the Middle East conflict, which makes it feel like those two years are nowcoinciding. The report contains the latest forecasts from our global economists and As we hit another payrolls Friday in theUS,Asian markets are seeing somedecent sized tech lossesin what seems to be a hangover from Wednesday night'sBroadcomresults where forecasts weren't as elevated as some of the moreoptimistic predictions hoped.The KOSPI is down-5.02% with the Nikkei-1.27%lower. The latterisalso influenced by the increasing view that theBank of Japan TheHang Seng(-0.84%) is also trading lower on tech losses with the ASX-0.63%. S&P 500 (-0.59%) and NASDAQ 100 (-1.07%) futures are also weak for thistime of the day. Bucking the trend is the Shanghai Composite (+0.43%).European Early morning data revealed thatJapan’s real wages rose by +1.9% in April(compared to +1.7% anticipated) y/y, contributing to a smaller-than-expecteddecline in household spending. Average nominal wages, or total cash earnings,increased by +3.5% year-on-year (against +3.1% expected). This figure representsthefastest wage growth since December 2024, following a revised increase of+3.1% in March.The April data marks the first instance in over 34 years where Before these overnight moves, markets stabilised yesterday amidst growing hopesfor some sort ofUS-Irandeal. SoBrent crude oil prices (-2.84%) fell back to helped to ease fears about a stagflationary shock. As a result, markets followedthe usual pattern of the last three months, where lower oil prices meant bond yieldsalso fell back, with investors pricing in a more dovish path for central banks too.Meanwhile, equities recovered, including theS&P 500 (+0.41%), although it In terms of the latest from the Middle East, there wasn’t much in the way of freshnews.However, oil prices saw a clear move lower after Trump issued a postcriticising the vote in the House of Representatives against theIranconflict.That was because Trump’s post said the vote was “right in the middle of my finalnegotiations to end the War”. So that suggested talks were still happening and a And investors also priced out the chance of a longer conflict, with the6-month Brentfuture (-2.15%) also falling to $85.04/bbl. So that helped to ease concerns aboutinflation, with the1yrUSinflation swap (-9.2bps) falling to 3.09%, whilst the 1yr With easing fears around inflation, markets dialled back the chance of a rate hikefrom theFederal Reservethis year. Indeed,the probability of a hike by Decemberwas down to 68% by the close, having been at 81% the previous day. Moreover, those dovish expectations got further support from some weakerUSdata, with theweekly initial jobless claims rising to their highest since early February. Theyhit 225k in the week ending May 30 (vs. 215k expected), and even though theMemorial Day holiday could havecreated volatility, the4-week moving average Looking forward,USdata will stay in the spotlight today, as we’ll get the May jobsreport at 13:30Londontime. This will be an important one for theFed, asthe stronglabour market data of recent weeks has fuelled the speculation about apotential rate hike. Indeed, we’ve just had back-to-back payrolls above +100k inMarch and April, which is the first time that’s happened since 2024. And so long asthe labour market stays in decent shape, that will keep the focus on the inflation sideof theFed’s mandate, which has moved increasingly above target given the energyshock. In terms of today’s report,ourUSeconomists expect payrolls to come in Ahead of that,USequities also regained momentum before this morning'sfutures sell-off, with the S&P 500 (+0.41%) paring back the previous day’slosses and still looking to post a 10th consecutive weekly increase for the first Most constituents in the index put in a solid performance yesterday, with 363advancers–the most since April–and with the equal-weighted S&P 500 andBroadcom(-12.59%) was the second-biggest decliner in the index aftertheir earnings the previous day. That included a forecast for AI chip revenue thatwas beneath expectations, which led to broader concerns around the sector.ThePhilly semiconductor index fell by-2.15% but it did recover from as much as Earlier in Europe, markets had put in a positive session across bonds and equities,benefiting from the fall in oil prices and being less expos