创新、人力资本和税收：来自加拿大经济结构模型的证据

Innovation, Human Evidence from a Structural Model of the Prepared by Sandra Valentina Lizarazo Ruiz WP/26/116 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarily 2026JUN Western Hemisphere Department Innovation, Human Capital, and Taxation:Evidence from a Structural Model of the Canadian Economy Authorized for distribution by Ashvin Ahuja IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:Canada’s innovation performance has been strong but shows limited upward momentum despite generous research and development (R&D) subsidies. This paper develops an endogenous innovation, multi-sector, heterogeneous-agent model calibrated to the Canadian economy to evaluate fiscal policies thatpromote innovation and growth. The impact of R&D subsidies depends critically on the supply of high-skilledlabor. When the supply of scientists is inelastic, subsidies raise research wages, crowd out private R&D, andcan reduce long-run growth. When labor supply is more elastic, subsidies generate substantial gains in WORKING PAPERS Innovation, Human Capital, andTaxation: Evidence from a Structural Model of the Canadian Prepared by Sandra Valentina Lizarazo Ruiz 1Introduction Innovation is a central driver of long-term economic growth and productivity. Canada pro-vides a particularly relevant case study:1: while it ranks highly in international measuresof innovation inputs—such as scientific output and public support for research—its inno-vation outcomes and productivity growth have shown limited upward momentum over thepast decade.At the same time, Canada offers among the most generous research and de- This apparent disconnect raises a key policy question: to what extent can additional fiscalincentives effectively stimulate innovation when underlying constraints may lie elsewhere?Evidence points to structural bottlenecks in the innovation ecosystem, including shortagesof high-skilled labor, uneven technology diffusion, and limited capacity to scale new ideasinto commercially viable products. Among these, constraints on the supply of high-skilled This paper argues that the effectiveness of R&D subsidies critically depends on theavailability of high-skilled labor. When the supply of scientists is inelastic, expanding fiscalincentives generates general equilibrium effects that offset their intended impact.Higher To study these mechanisms, the paper develops an endogenous innovation, multi-sector,heterogeneous-agent model calibrated to the Canadian economy.Firms invest in R&D toaccumulate sector-specific technologies, high-skilled workers choose between production and The analysis focuses on long-run steady-state comparisons across policy regimes. As such,the results should be interpreted as characterizing the persistent effects of policy changes The quantitative analysis shows that the growth effects of R&D subsidies are highly non-linear and depend on the elasticity of high-skilled labor supply. When the supply of scientistsis relatively inelastic, subsidies generate limited gains and may reduce long-run growth. In The paper also highlights important distributional trade-offs.R&D subsidies tend toincrease inequality by disproportionately benefiting high-income individuals employed inresearch occupations.These effects are mitigated when labor supply is more elastic, but This paper contributes to three strands of the literature by placing endogenous scientistsupply at the center of innovation policy in a general equilibrium framework with distribu-tional implications.First, it contributes to research on R&D tax incentives and subsidiesby highlighting the role of endogenous labor supply and occupational choice in shaping pol- The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section II presents the model. SectionIII discusses the calibration. Section IV reports the main results. Section V concludes. 2Model This section presents a quantitative general equilibrium model designed to evaluate how fiscalpolicy affects innovation and long-term growth in the presence of labor market constraints. Relative to standard models of endogenous innovation, the framework incorporates three First, technology enters production as an input alongside capital and labor, rather than as a purely multiplicative productivity term. As a result, changes in technology affect pro- Second, innovation is not summarized solely by the stock of technology.Instead, itdepends jointly on the stock of technologies, the level of research capital, and the productivity Third, the model combines endogenous innovation with household heterogeneity andoccupational choice. High-skilled workers decide whether to work in production or research, These f