人工智能利弊并存：既是增长推动力，也带来新的竞争风险

Al cuts both ways AssociateDirectorof EquityResearch-Germany Inthisreport,wesummarizekeytakeawaysfromthelastearningsseasonacross +49-69-910-31731Nicolas Herms majorEngsWplayers.Alremainedthe dominanttheme,highlightedas akeydemanddriverascustomersacceleratemodernizationofdataandworkflowstobecome Al-ready,thereby driving platformconsolidation.Conversely,Al-nativechallengers are increasingly making inroads, with high-profile partnerships (e.g.,Mistralwith Airbus/BMW)highlighting the risk of new entrants targeting specificuse cases within the engineering stack. With limited disclosure, the impact onincumbentsremainstobeseen,especiallywithsomeemphasizingthatcustomersexperimenting with Al startups often revert to incumbents for industrial-scaledeployment, citing the need for domain expertise, seamless integration, andproprietary (multi-)physics datato validate Aloutputs.Thatsaid, we expectmoreannouncementsofthisnaturetocome,remainingaheadlinerisk.Onmonetization,incumbentsnotedcustomerresistanceto'forced'AladoptionlackingclearROl.Some,hence,separatecoreportfoliovaluefromAlfeatures,withusage/outcome-basedpricing,whileothersembedAlintopremiumtiersorexperimentwithhybrid(seat-and token-based)models.Internally,companies noted that Alis deliveringproductivity gains, though savings are largely being reinvested into acceleratingproduct roadmaps,limiting margin upside somewhat. We remain selective,preferring Autodesk, PTC and MuM (Buy) over Dassault, and Hexagon (Hold). Research Analyst +49-69-910-13052BhavinShah, CFA Research Analyst+1-212-250-6775 Nooshin NejatiResearch Analyst+49-69-910-61797 Yusuf JamalResearch Associate Kunal GuptaResearch Associate EMEAmixed,cautiononChina,AmericasandAPACexChina solidEnd-market commentaryremainedmixed.Strong underlyingtrends continueto support solid growth in A&D, while Automotive commentary remained cautiousglobally.Constructionmaintainspositivemomentum,bolsteredbydatacenterandinfrastructure spending.Regionally,EMEA showed mixed performance withpersistent automotive weakness,whereas the Americas demonstrated robustgrowth.APAC remains solid, though with ongoing caution on China. ForValuationand Risks,pleaserefertopp.17-29 Middle Eastrisksloom,butnomaterial impactvisible sofar WithmostplayershavinglimiteddirectexposuretotheMiddleEast,therehasbeennomaterial impactfromtheIranconflictsofar,andcommentaryoncurrenttradingremainedbroadlyconstructive.However,withtheconflictstill unresolved,webelieveuncertainties persistlongerthan most companies had hoped, increasingthe risk of second-order effects on customer decision-making and projecttimingsthroughout the year,as the full implications become more visible. IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesand seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus, investors should be aware thatthefirm mayhave a conflict of interest thatcould affecttheobjectivity of this report. Investors should considerthis report as onlya singlefactorin makingtheirinvestmentdecision. IT Software &ServicesEngineering Software Autoweak A&D remained a clear bright spot,with resilient demand supported by strong underlying budget trends and intensifying geopolitical tensions. Managementcommentaryacross the sectorpoints to sustained momentum into 2026 andbeyond.The Iran conflict, however, introduces a risk for commercial aerospacedemand,whichwebelievewarrantsclosemonitoring.DassaultremainedpositiveonunderlyingA&Dgrowth, despitea slightlyweakerQ1duetotoughcomps,withmanagementhighlightingincreasingbudgets and earlytractionindefence-relatedareas such as marine and offshore.KeypeerPTC pointedtoparticular strength infederal aerospaceand defence,includingarecent Us Army contract win andcontinued pipeline momentum. Hexagon similarly highlighted continued strongglobal performance inA&Dwith no indications ofdemandweakening.MuMnotedthat CAM demand is increasingly driven by the Defence sector. Automotivecommentaryremainscautious,markedbyongoing uncertainties and headwinds from"anti-involution" efforts in China.HexagonhighlightedcontinuedweaknessinEMEAandtheAmericas,withparticularsoftnessinChinalinkedtoexcesscapacityandlimitednear-termrecoveryvisibility.Dassault also continuesto seeweakness inthe Europeanauto sector(especiallyFrance,Germany)with some deal slippage in Q1,albeit without furtherdeterioration. Notably, Renault's reduction in engineering capacity has not (yet)translated into lowerlicensedemand,suggesting someresilience atthe softwarelevel("doingmore withless").Meanwhile,autodemand remains relativelyhealthyin North America and Asia, with Dassault securing wins with Ford and BYD.PTCalso flagged supportive demand trends linked to software-defined vehicles,providing apartialoffsettobroaderweakness. Architecture,Engineering&Construction:Infrastructurespendand datacenterbuild-out driving growthAECmarketsareresilientamidstInfrastructurespendingandespeciallydatacenter build-out emerging as a k