人工智能 vs 人类 - 印度保险：人工智能初创公司试图颠覆在线分销——它们能成功吗？

Al vs. Human - India Insurance: Al startups trying to disruptonline distribution - can they succeed? businesses (detailed views here).Insuranceneeds more hand-holding than other products.PBFin has a strong brand &an army of tele-advisors that service warm leads from thedominant position in the insurance distribution market. We think startups will leverage Alvoice-bots/chat-botstotryandbreakthatdominance.Atthesametime,PBFinhastheopportunity to improve tele-advisor productivity &unit economics. +912268421446manas.agrawal@bernsteinsg.com +912268421452himank.sangai@bernsteinsg.com can'talk'to customers about their insurance purchase like a human.Take the PB Fin tele-advisor awayandreplaceitwithan Albot (voice/chat).AnAl-nativeexperiencewhereyoucantalkto anAladvisoranddecide what insurancetobuy.ZyraAl (private)isbuildingthisWe see more challengers rising, planning Al-powered call-centers (link). They may fail, butthey willtry, unlike the past. 2.Alvs.Human-unit economics: PB Fin pays~INR 10.5/minute in salaries for customertalking to customers, Exhibit 3).Al bots can'speak'with customers at~INR 4-5/minute,using frontiermodels (lowerwith cheaper/open-source models) Yes, both do not sound the same, and would have very meaningfully different conversionrates.The cost/minutefavors Al,butthe cost/saleor cost/revenue still tiltstowardshumans,fornow.Thatmay change as Al advances.Al-augmentation should bethebasecase fortele-advisors/call-center operations, may be even replacement. 3.Competition from voice-agents: Al-augmentation opportunity is very real, even today.BetterAlmodels (more human-sounding,cheaper)couldmakea case for Al-replacementas well. Today, PB Fin wins because of its brand, and its trained tele-advisory force - aunique right-to-win. Rivals have not tried to build assisted-selling models since it is difficultto manage a large tele-advisory force, and the high cost of driving web traffic for a newentrant.Al voice-bots give challengers somehelp in navigating the first hurdle.We expectchallengers to leverage Al to build new assisted-selling models. 4.Productivity opportunity for PB Fin: While we expect competition, PB Fin also standsto benefit if they execute well on Al automation.PB Fin's tele-advisors spend only ~40% oftheirtimetalking to clients (balancetime used in managing data/processes).They expectcall-times to jump from ~40% to ~90% of advisor time using Al (Exhibit 1). If achievedthat would halve the cost/minute for PB Fin, while maintaining their high sales conversionmetrics driven by the human-in-the-loop strategy. Even if we assume lower (than claimed)productivity gains, there is a material difference in cost/minute,and a meaningful source ofmargin expansion for PB Fin. Continued on the next page... Call-center salary costs are~40% of the core business top-line for PB Fin today.Alower number can materially improve contribution margins today,and in the steady-state assumptions for investors (Exhibit 3).This may come as a timely offsetasthey look to navigate potential take-rate regulations. business, but any sales function with client engagement as akey metric can benefit from higher clients/employee, andthusdrivebetterunit economics &margins.We share our detailedviews here. more AuM/RM, which in turn ismore revenue and profits/RM.This expands themargin profileas well since the cost basedoesnot grow in line with the revenue line in such a case. technology platform driving higher clientconversions,and better clientlevel reportingand recommendations.Banks canenhance branch-level teller/RM productivity. Insurers can invest in improving agency channel sales productivity, and so on. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSWethink Al startups will bring competition to the financial services distribution space. Insurance is thetoughest product to sell, andPBFinhasdone welltobuildalargeandefficientsalesmachinery.Erstwhilecompetitorsdidnotsucceedduetothelackofa strong brand andtheir unwillingness to invest in the tele-advisory setup (call-center sales).We think Al will allow challengersto compete on the assisted selling model where PB Fin has built an edge. At the same time, Al offers PB Fin the opportunityto materially improve its own unit economics, driving higher productivity for the tele-advisory force and thus lower the cost ofthe call-center operations. This is a timely opportunity as it grapples with a potential compression in take-rates from regulatoryaction.Whilethereportfocuses on online insurancesales, we thinktheproductivityboostopportunityequallyappliestoagencyinsurance sales, wealth managers, mutual fund distributors, etc. Werate PB Fin Outperform. EXHIBIT 3: Salary costs for PB Fin's call-center operations can bemuch lower from Al productivity boost (highercustomertalk-timeperadvisor) References to"Bernstein" or theFirm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Ber