小米Q1：在内存周期中彰显韧性；基本面得到巩固——再次强调优于大盘

Asian AutosXiaomi CorpRatingOutperform eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.comEthan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com 43.00 HKD Xiaomi Q1: Resilience on display amid memory cycle;fundamentals reinforced — reiterate Outperform Q1 Resilience on display.Xiaomi posted Q1 revenue of RMB 99.1bn, -10.9% yoy and-15.2% qoq. Gross margin rebounded sequentially to 22.0%, vs. 22.8% in Q1 25 and20.8% for Q4 25. Opex as % of revenue came in at 19.0%, higher vs. 13.9% in Q1 25 and18.1% in Q4 25, primarily due to higher R&D investment. Net income reached RMB 4.7bn,-56.7% yoy, -27.6% qoq, and implied 4.8% net margin, vs. 9.8% in Q1 25 and 5.6% inQ4 25.Q1 weakness was largely anticipated, driven by memory pricing pressure, ahigh base in smartphones and IoT, and a reset in the EV product cycle.Despite this,adjusted net profit came in at RMB 6.1bn (6.1% margin), above our estimate of RMB 5.5bn,underscoring underlying resilience. The company is not out of the woods yet, with memory- Close Date26 May 20261810.HK Close Price (HKD)29.76Price Target (HKD)43.00Upside/(Downside)44%52-Week Range61.45/28.80SPX7,473.47FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (HKD) (M)768,951EV (HKD) (M)603,191 Smartphone gross margin beat, ASP record high.Q1 revenue declined 12.5% yoy (flatqoq), with shipments down 19.1% on high base, partly offset by ASP growth of 8.2% to arecord RMB 1.3k. Gross margin came in stronger than expected at 10.1% (vs. 12.4% in Q125 and 8.3% in Q4 25), despite higher memory costs, supported by a richer product mix andlower cost inventory carryover for memory. Margin pressure is likely to persist into Q2 andQ3 as memory prices continue to rise. The company reiterated full-year guidance of c.-10% Investment Implications We rate XiaomiOutperformwith price target for1810.HK at HK$43.00(unchanged)basedon our SOTP, which correlates to 22x 1-year forward P/E. DETAILS IoT showcasing strong overseas momentum, boosting margin.IoT Q1 revenue declined 23.7% yoy (+0.3% qoq), primarilydue to a high base driven by prior year subsidies. Gross margin remained robust at 25.2% (flat yoy vs. Q1 25 and up from 20.1%in Q4 25), supported by an improved product mix. Notably, overseas delivered strong double-digit growth, accounting fornearly 40% of segment revenue—reinforcing Xiaomi’s long-term international expansion thesis. Looking ahead, Q2 is likely to EV product cycle reset weighed on near-term performance, but momentum is recovering.EV & AI segment revenuegrew 6.9% YoY but declined 46.6% QoQ, mainly reflecting EV deliveries of 81k units (+6.6% YoY, -44.3% QoQ) amid a modeltransition. Shipments were concentrated on YU7, while the new SU7 launched on March 19 with deliveries starting a weekafter. Gross margin declined to 20.2% (vs. 23.2% in Q1 25 and 22.7% in Q4 25), impacted by promotional activity, includingpurchase tax subsidies on undelivered orders at year-end. EBIT turned negative, largely due to increased AI investment. Lookingahead, momentum has picked up following the new SU7 launch, which garnered 80k orders within 48 days, alongside new YU7GT and standard trims released on May 21. We expect Q2 deliveries to exceed 120k units (vs. 36.7k delivered in April), while We remain constructive on Xiaomi’s AI potential, underpinned by its hardware ecosystem.In April, Xiaomi launchedMiMo-V2.5, which ranked strongly on global benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis. On April 3, it also introduced its token plan,achieving a 35% retention rate post free trial, with Pro and Max tiers contributing over 50% of revenue. These milestones reflectsteady, user-recognized progress in AI. While capabilities remain in an early stage of rapid iteration, Xiaomi’s control over both Links to related research: 5 May 2026 - Chinese Autos: Challenging home market, Strength abroad — Model updates following Q1 review 1 May 2026 - China Smartphone Tracker (March): More pressure on low-end 27 Apr 2026 - Xiaomi: 2026 Investor Day takeaways — AI, Overseas, Memory, and Humanoid robotics 25 Mar 2026 - Xiaomi Q4: Memory overhang persists; Constructive on Premiumization, Overseas expansion, and AI momentum 19 Mar 2026 - Xiaomi: Upgrades Best-Selling SU7 BEV sedan and launches MiMo-V2-Pro AI model – Quick Take 11 Feb 2026 - Xiaomi: Weathering the memory inflation cycle, EV & overseas potential intact; lowering TP to HK$46, maintainOutperform 5 Feb 2026 - China Autos: Under the hood — Rising metal and memory costs squeeze OEM margins 12 Nov 2025 - Xiaomi: Smartphone Premiumization on track, amid near-term pressure from rising memory prices; Lower PT toHK$57 26 Sep 2025 - Xiaomi: Unpacking the EV margin advantage — Leveraging Brand, Scale efficiency, and Supply chain mastery 18 Jun 2025 - Xiaomi: Decoding Xiaomi EV's Success — Product, Marketing, Brand, and Ecosystem 15 Apr 2025 - Xiaomi's EV-olution: A unique synergistic ecosystem with promising EV prospects; Initiating at Outperform — PT Financial forecast and estimate changes We reiterate our Outperform rating on Xiaom