South Korea DRAM Exports Tracker (April): HBM momentum strong, but no clear signs of HBM4 yet

Korea Memory Export Tracker (Apr): Robust HBM momentum butno notable sign of HBM4 yet We track the Korea export data as it is a good early indicator for Samsung’s & SK hynix’sHBM revenue in the same quarter, and update this tracker with the Mar data. Details of ourmethodology can be found in our prior note. The dataset can be downloaded at this link. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Overall HBM export grew strongly QoQ vs. Jan.Apr data dipped 12% MoM onseasonality but was up 62% vs. Jan, pointing to solid QoQ growth for 2Q26. Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Data suggested healthy HBM growth for Samsung in 2Q26.Export from S.Chungcheong Province (where Samsung packages HBM) dropped MoM seasonally, but up26% QoQ vs. Jan. Regression predicts 2Q26 HBM revenue to rise by 32% QoQ. It is behindour estimate likely due to Rubin delay but HBM4 ramp will help 2H26 enjoy acceleration. Export for SK hynix also stayed robust.Apr export from N. Chungcheong & Icheongrew further from the strong Mar and was up 81% QoQ compared to a relatively weak Jan.Regression predicts 2Q26 HBM revenue to grow 25% QoQ too, only slightly behind our we No notable sign of HBM4 yet.As HBM has much higher dollar value per weight, we track“value per weigh” as it may be directionally suggestive of HBM price change. Apr “valueper weight” dropped slightly MoM for both Samsung & SK hynix, & neither showed sign ofHBM4 yet. Between them, the trend over the past few months has been generally positive Data confirmed HBM price has been insulated from the volatility of conventionalmemory price.Conventional memory price surged in the past few months, but HBM price, Overall Apr data suggested healthy HBM growth for 2Q26 but no notable sign ofHBM4 yet. Between the two, the data was slightly behind vs. our forecast for SKhynix & notably slower for Samsung but our model likely doesn’t model the HBM4delay properly. We also maintain that Samsung is improving its position in HBM4 &should gain more momentum in 2H26. On the other hand, HBM price likely will be Export to Malaysia dropped seasonally but remained at a notable level.The sizefell MoM to US$0.4B in Apr, mainly due to drops in the export from Samsung, thoughpast seasonality suggested it should recover in later months. No sign of HBM export todestinations other than Taiwan & Malaysia, and also no sign that Samsung or SK hynix was Conventional memory price increase to stay strong in 2Q26.We expect strong HBMdemand growth in the next 2 years. For conventional memory, we model price to hikestrongly again in 2Q26, but peak in 1H27, and gradually normalize afterwards. We remainstructurally constructive on Samsung, SK hynix & Micron but negative on KIOXIA on China BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 225,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 1,150,000. DETAILS Korea Customs Service has released export data for April. Asour previous notefound, the export data for certain memoryproducts bears close correlation with HBM revenues of Samsung and SK hynix. We hence track the monthly data to provide investors a preview on HBM revenues from the two companies in the same quarter. Details of our methodology can be found inthe previous note. You may also download the export data at thislink. Apr data came strong on QoQ basis and indicated that HBM revenue to see continued healthy QoQ growth in 2Q26 •Apr Korea total multichip memory export to Taiwan and Malaysia was US$3.7B, down 12% from the strong Mar data. TheMoM was however mostly due to seasonally and Apr data was up 62% QoQ (vs. Jan) and also up 131% YoY (Exhibit 1). As weanalyzed before, multichip memory export to Taiwan and Malaysia tracked closely with HBM revenues from Samsung and SKhynix and therefore indicated that HBM sales momentum continued to be very strong into 2Q26. •If we focus on the export from S. Chungcheong Province, where Samsung’s back-end fabs are and likely where its HBM ispackaged, Apr export fell sharply from Mar by 38% MoM. It should be largely due to the backend loaded monthly seasonality,as it actually delivered a solid 26% growth QoQ (vs. Jan) (Exhibit 2). In comparison, our forecast had Samsung HBM revenuerise by 2x in 2Q26, which likely seems too aggressive now considering Rubin’s delay (Exhibit 3). According to the regressionusing historical data, Apr data suggested US$4.4B in HBM revenue for Samsung in 2Q26, significantly below our estimatebut still growing QoQ by 25% (Exhibit 4). However we also noticed that Samsung’s HBM export monthly seasonality hasbecome more backend loaded, with the first month on average being only 17% of the quarterly total since 2025 (Exhibit 5). •For SK hynix, we have identified that its HBM export should come nearly all from N. Chungchoeng Province and Icheon City,where its wafer fabs are. Apr export data remained quite robust at 4