升DHL评级至买入；目标价56欧元（原48欧元）

RatingBuy 22 May 2026Date CompanyDHL Group Coverage Change EuropeGermany TransportLogistics ADRISINDPSGYUS25157Y2028 Express strength - upgrade to BUY Valuation & Risks Harishankar RamamoorthyResearch Analyst Upgrade DHL to BUY (from HOLD); TP €56 (from €48) We upgrade DHL to BUY from HOLD, with our price target revised to €56 (from €48).In an uncertain macro/geo-political backdrop, DHL benefits from: (i) self-help(delivery of fit-for-growth savings €1bn); (ii) a well-invested network, esp. in DHLExpress (market-leading positions); and (iii) superior pricing power given near-termpressures in global supply chain and structurally higher complexity. We see an end Andy Chu, FCAResearch Analyst+44-20-754-11360 Jaime RowbothamResearch Analyst DHL shares are c. 8% below February highs, driven by fears around AI disruptionand competition from Amazon; we think the fears are overdone. We also seepotential cost efficiencies, esp. within freight forwarding, although we need to see Gopal KrishanResearch Associate Changes to forecasts Following Q1 results, we have revised up our EBIT forecasts for the group between4% and 9% over 2026-28e; the significant Express segment (c. half the EBIT mix)driving the upgrades, on the back of better performance (margins +250bps YoY inQ1). DBe EPS f/cs now c. 6-12% higher vs. earlier; earnings are likely at a pivot. Valuations We revise our TP to €56, as we roll our SOTP valuation model to 2027 f/cs (see Figure18). On BBG cons., DHL shares trade at c. 11.6x fwd EV/EBIT, 11x 27e; bears couldargue this is ahead of the pre-covid average at 9.5x, but the business is increasinglygeared towards the higher margin/potential ROIC segments of Express/GlobalForwarding (c. 2/3rds of the group EBIT now, vs. c. half the mix through the early Due to changes in team structure, we transfer lead analyst coverage of DHL to IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank doesand seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may DHL in six charts Source : Deutsche Bank estimates Source : Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates A well invested TDI network in Express DHL Express is the global leader in Time-Definite International (TDI - the Express/Prioritycross-border delivery)network,with management estimating theirsegment market share at a dominant 48% in 2024, vs. c. 30% in 2010. While peersFedex and UPS hold the top positions in Americas, DHL Express has market-leadingshares in other geographies, with significant gaps vs. the next big player. DHL has Source : Company data, based on Market Intelligence studies and extrapolation of quarterly releases Near-term, we see the increasing pressures on Global Supply Chain benefitting thepricing for the segment, helping offset cost pressures from higher jet-fuel. We alsosee potential benefits to margins from the fit-for-growth initiatives; Q1 margins for Potential to bridge the gap in Freight Forwarding There is also further potential within the Freight Forwarding division, where DHLlags its peers DSV and Kuehne-Nagel when it comes to the GP generated per TEU/tonnage. We think DHL can chase profitable volumes that have better unit Below the GP, the conversion to EBIT is a mixed picture. Comparing the numbers isnot straight forward, given some central costs not allocated to the Forwardingsegment EBIT within DHL. That said, we think there is scope for DHL to targetefficiencies, esp. in the context of DSV announcing a further DKK 9bn of savings The savings targeted by DSV should bode well for the industry as a whole, and in ourview, allays some market fears on the threats posed by AI. Freight Forwarding is afragmented market, where technological disruptions have been in the making forsome time now (digital freight forwarders, AI etc.). We do not think the business In that context, DSV's comments from its CMD, that even a competitor withunlimited spending power would take years or decades to build the networkrequired, is very telling. Markets took the news on Amazon expanding its SupplyChain service offerings to third parties as a significant negative for the logistics/freight forwarding players. But in a market that is highly fragmented (DSV +Schenker only 6% of the global freight market despite being the largest in scale), we Changes to forecasts Valuations We have rolled forward our SOTP model to value DHL on 2027 EBIT (2026 earlier);we adopt mid-cycle multiples of segment peers to arrive at segment EV, beforecapitalizing central costs and adjusting for pensions, net debt, Minority Interests. This yields our price target of €56 (vs. €48 earlier), implying an upside of over 15%.On our price target, the implied 2027 Ev/EBIT is c. 12.5x, within the 6-14x range seenin history. However, we think this is misleading, as the business is different fromwhat it used to be a couple of decades ago.