全球汽车、出行与机器人大会核心要点

IndustryGlobal Automotive Key Takeaways from Global Auto,Mobility, and Robotics Conference Tim Rokossa Preparing for the world to change Head of Research While European and US auto markets remain surprisingly resilient in the near term,companies are actively monitoring and bracing for the escalating impacts of theMiddle East conflict, which are currently manifesting as inflationary pressuresacross raw materials, logistics, freight, and energy costs. Although immediatefinancial hits in 2026 appear largely mitigated thus far by existing hedging andpassthrough strategies on oil and raw materials, suppliers recognize that prolongedgeopolitical friction has the potential to impact volume and profit. Separately,suppliers are actively seeking secular non-auto growth opportunities by leveragingexisting product portfolios and manufacturing footprint. Edison Yu Research Analyst James Mulholland, CFAResearch Associate Nicolai Kempf Volumes – surprisingly resilient but for how long?Across OEM and AutoParts , both Europe and the US have been described as Research Analyst surprisingly resilient in the current environment while China was rather softdomestically with particular strength in exports. Higher oil prices are not yettranslating into softer consumer demand but all companies are preparing foradverse impacts should they start to show later in the year. On the OEM side, ordermomentum in Europe has been described as good across powertrains andAutoParts names have indicated continuously improved call off stability in a YoYcomparison for Q2. In the meantime, IHS has seemingly incorporated worseproduction environment in the latter part of the year within its latest May revision,cutting about 500k units of production for 2026, 1.2m units for 2027 and 800k unitsin 2028 baking in higher for longer oil prices. From a sentiment standpoint, thisdirectly contrasts with the resilient environment commented by suppliers andOEMs across the board. Admittedly, near term visibility is roughly 10-12 weeks, andwe suspect 2Q will shape up solidly, pushing any potential risks off to 2H and 2027. Research Analyst Laura LiResearch Associate Mira WiegratzResearch Associate Pricing: tariffs, inflation… how much can the consumer digest?In the US, it is difficult to raise prices to fully offset tariffs. Europe also remains challengingfrom that standpoint,and China pricing is showing signs ofstabilization. Particularly in the US, OEMs are focusing more on the model yearchangeover and mix strength, which serve as natural boosts for ASP withoutactively passing through inflation and tariff costs to end consumers. At the sametime, both incentives and inventory are carefully managed, with profitabilityincreasingly helped by contribution from software and services. 22 May 2026Auto ManufacturingGlobal Automotive Middle East conflict/cost – energy and logistic cost to hit first The exposure of the operating business of most companies to the region remainssmall and negligible in a group context but the cost impact of the Middle Eastconflict are starting to show. With decent hedging levels on energy and rawmaterials, the headwinds are comparably small in 2026 but increasing in 2027 ashedging levels roll off. Logistic/freight cost and inflation from lower tiers of thesupply chain are starting to show and efficiency measures are initiated to mitigatethe negative impact on earnings. Suppliers are largely passing through the higherraw materials to OEMs, often occurring a 3- to 6-month lag. Non Autos – new growth AutoParts names are increasingly outspoken about growing ambitions to win nonauto business through levering existing IP into other end markets. These ambitionsrangebetween building Humanoid components business to supplyingcomponents to data centers or providing components for Defence systems. Withthat, securing topline growth and improving capacity utilization is targeted whichshould support earnings improvements as well as a change in narrative on thecompanies finally returning to more meaningful growth. For now, the businessremains almost too small to have a sizeable growth impact, with more meaningfulcontribution 2-5 years down the road. Depending on the supplier in context, theconversations around non-Autos have range from technology compatibility, toinvestments required and potentially through M&A, to actual awards and revenuerecognition in the out-years. The China Dynamic (Exports & Localization) Chinese OEMs are aggressively expanding their global footprint, capturing marketshare in regions like ASEAN, South America, and Europe. For suppliers, aligningwith Chinese exporters acts as a significant revenue tailwind, though it forceslegacy automakers to either heavily localize their supply chains or rethink theirpricing to remain competitive. We've so far seen very strong export patterns out ofChina YTD, and conversations suggest the this may be accelerated by OEMsshipping ahead of anticipated Brazilian tariffs. EV Normali