REMD：更多催化剂出现前的暂停

China Real Estate fundamentals are still improving+Junepeakpre-saleseasonandmoresignsofhomeprice Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+85229966918Oliver Yu* stabilisation couldhelp support valuationon forward earnings Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85222882050Stephen Wang*,CFA (HSl: -1.1%), which we attribute to profit-taking after the recent rally rather thanrenewed fundamental concerns.Lower expectationsfor US and China rate cuts,alongside rising US bond yields, are weighing on sentiment. Fundamentally, NBSdata show tier-1 cities continued to post m-o-m growth in both primary and secondarymarkets, with Shanghai's growth accelerating. Month-to-date in May, tier-1 new homesales area rose 7% y-0-y, and secondary transactions in 10 cities increased 22%y-o-y.We remain constructive and believe the market is moving towards a naturalequilibrium without policy stimulus. That said, after the sharp valuation recovery,further re-ratingneedsfirmerevidence of a sustained recovery.We view this pull-back as a healthy pause for investors to re-engage with the sector. Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675 not registered/qualified pursuant toFINRAregulations Accommodative onshore rates but risks foroffshore refinancing.Rising USbond yields may pressure equity valuations via a higher risk-free rate, but the directimpact on China propertyfundamentals should be limited. Onshore funding remainssupportive: commercial mortgage rates (3.1%) and housing provident fund rates(2.6%) are at historical lows, and the 10-year government bond yield continues totrend down. With our economists expecting the policy rate to stay stable through2026, mortgage rates should remain low, though further cuts are limited. Offshore,Longfor and Vanke have USD maturities in 2027; refinancing in a higher-yieldenvironmentcouldpushborrowingcostshigher Awaittransmissionfromhousingstabilisationtocreditexpansion.InApril,household medium-to long-term lending (a mortgage proxy) fell by RMB341bn, a recordlow.This sharpnet contraction suggests rising early mortgageprepayments and weakerwillingness to use leverage for home purchases. The transmission from early marketstabilisationtocreditexpansionwilltaketime.Aswenoted,theresetinhouseholdhousing wealth is likelyto complete in 2026 (Housing wealth reset,16 March2026).A stronger wealtheffectcould then support credit expansion and provide anotherleg tothe housing recovery. Stock picks.CRLandand C&D(both Buy)remain ourpreferredpicks amongdevelopers with their rich pipelines of high-end projects in the coming months, whichstrengthen their earnings recovery in 2027 onwards. We believe CRL will also benefitfrom the investment property revaluation theme as the C-REITs market expands,while C&D still has room to catch up in terms of YTD share price performance. HSBCFundingtheFutureSurvey Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This reportmust beread with the disclosures andtheanalyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Property managersCOPL2669 HK Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflect Equities:Stockratingsand basisforfinancialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (HSBC) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings,risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the ratingbecause research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating. From23rd March2015HSBC has assigned ratings on the