1Q26预览：收益较软受利息收入影响；净资产流入接近历史最高纪录

Futu Holdings (FUTU US) affected by interest income; netasset inflows close to recordhigh 1Q26 preview:softerearningsaffected by interestincome; net asset inflows close to record high Futu is scheduled to release 1Q26 results on May 28 (Thu), pre-market. We expectthe broker’s topline/bottom-line to reachHK$6.1bn/HK$3.2bn in 1Q26, down 6%/7%QoQ, ~1%/4% below Bloomberg consensus. The sequential slowdown in revenuescould be due to a mid-teens QoQ decline in interest income (CMBI est:-16%), possiblylanding short of market expectations. We attribute this interest income decline to 1)falling securities lending revenue due to heightened equity market volatilities, leadingtodeleveragingsentiment (i.e. HSI/HSTECH:-3.3%/-15.7% and KWEB/NASDAQ:-16.5%/-7.1% in 1Q26); 2) easing growth of margin financing income despite a robustMFSL balance, which we estimate tohavesequentially edgedup by a low-single digitin 1Q26; and 3) lower avg. 1M/3M HIBOR rateat2.5%/2.7%, down 72bps/66bps from4Q25. Brokerage commission income is expected to rise 4% QoQ toHK$2.9bn(CMBIest), driven by a record trading volume and a stabilized blended commission rate.Other income could be a swing factor for thetopline, and we project it to stay flattish Target PriceUp/DownsideCurrent Price China Financials Nika MA(852) 3900 0805nikama@cmbi.com.hk Shareholding Structure Key forecastsfor1Q26E: 1) 222k new funded accounts in 1Q26,tracking 28% ofmgmt.’sfull-yearnewacquisition guidance. We project 1Q new funded accounts to reach 222k, down 5%QoQ/15% YoY due toweakenedmarket sentiment amid heightened equity market 2) Client AUM modestly grew to HK$1.25tn,drivenby near-record net assetinflows whichlargely offsetthe mark-to-market fair value losses(i.e.HSI/HSTECH:-3.3%/-15.7% and KWEB/NASDAQ:-16.5%/-7.1% in 1Q26).TheAUM from cashdeposits and wealth management could sequentially tick up amid rising volatilities. 3) Trading volume to hit a record of HK$4.12tn,up 4%/28% QoQ/YoY driven byrallies in both US and HK market turnover. In 1Q26, we see US/HK market turnoverrising 11.9%/18.4% QoQ to US$66.4tn/HK$16.6tn, per data of CBOE and HKEx.4) Brokerage commission income totalled HK$2.9bn, rising 4%/25% QoQ/YoY.We expect the 1Q brokerage commission income increase to be driven by theuptick of trading volume, and a relatively stable blended commission rate at ~7bps. Source: FactSet Auditor: PwC Related reports: 5) Interest income fellbymid-teens QoQ,due todeclineinsecurities lendingincome.We forecast interest income to drop 16% QoQ to HK$2.6bn in 1Q26,weighed by the sequential slowdown in securities lending interest income. Tocross-read, HOOD’s and IBKR’s net securities lending revenues notably declined 1. Futu Holdings (FUTU US)-4Q robustgrowth in-line; geographic diversificationsaw sequential improvement,Mar 16, 2.FutuHoldings(FUTU US)-4Q25Preview:Resilient key metrics withmodest sequential growth amid market 6) OpEx stayed disciplined with CAC below the lowerbound of guidance.In1Q26,we expect total operating expensesto rise3% QoQ to HK$1.6bn, with sellingand marketing expensesremaining broadly prudent and CAC at ~HK$2.3k, belowthe lowerbound of the year-start guidance of HK$2.5k-3k. We estimate 1Q26 OPM 3.FutuHoldings(FUTU US)-3Qearnings a strong beat, driven by resilientnet asset inflows and NII recovery, Nov20, 2025 Watchlist for 1Q26 earnings call:1) product pipeline throughout 2026E, andoutlook for earnings upside from the rollout of prediction market in the US; 2) 4.Futu Holdings (FUTU US)-Marketingfeedback: short-term views mixed; 3QEPSupside to reinforce long-termconvictions, Oct 28, 2025 5.Futu Holdings (FUTU US)-Pioneeredone-stop financial services platform toride on crypto advancements;Initiate Valuation:Thestock is trading at 10.5x FY26E P/E,representinga 51% discountvs. key peers as shown intable. We fine-tune our FY26-28E earnings per ADRestimates to HK$93/HK$108/HK$121 from HK$94/HK$110/HK$124 to factor in the 1Qsoftness, and expect the broker’s long-term growth outlook to remain intact. Webelieve the current risk-reward of Futuisappealing, with its FY26-28E 3yr avg. ROEof 26.3% (CMBI est) and FY26E/27E P/E at 11x/9x,vs.key peers’ avg. ROE of19.1% and their respective avg. FY26E/27E trading P/E at 23x/19x (Fig.2). MaintainBUY with TP at US$228 (unchanged),correspondingto 19.2x FY26E P/E. Key risks:1) lower-than-expected turnover amid easing sentiment; 2) softeningtrendsinclientasset inflows across key markets; 3)sharp interest rate shocks;4)significant drawdowns in US/HKstockand crypto markets; 5) slower-than-expected Focus Charts Source: Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimatesNote:The estimates of Futu’s peer companies quoted from Bloombergconsensus. Source: Bloomberg, Wind,CMBIGMestimatesNote: Stock price data quoted by market close on May 19, 2026 (Tue). Source: Company data, CMBIGMNote: HOOD securities lending revenueis quoted from the company’smonthly metrics. Source: Company data,CMBIGMNote:IBKR net securities lending revenue