观点：如果美联储不得不加息，新兴市场该怎么办？

Global continue to lead to global inflation upside surprises, and the Fed "interregnum" is comingto an end. We think vol in EM is likely to pick up and advocate tactical caution. But we Table of Contents Asia Economics: China - Reflation returnsThe data points to a continued recovery in price pressures, with both headline and core picking up. Still, soft domestic demand is likely to cap the upside in inflation, while resilient external trade reduces the urgency for additional stimulus.- A. Zhou, Y. HeAsiaStrategy:China-MarginalappreciationpressureThis year's dividend payments for China would amount to c.USs61bn from June to August, slightly above last year's level. It will be unlikely to revert the downward trend in USD/CNYbut could incrementally slow down thepace of themove.-J. XueEEMEA Economics: South Africa - Inflation & political risk We spent 5-7 May in South Africa meeting government and local experts. We see risksof higher inflation and political risks. We expect CPl of 3.8% in April, and a peak of 4.7%-T. RusikeEEMEA Strategy: Hungary - Structurally bullish Hungarian authorities prefer lower bond yields rather than a stronger HUF. Further HUFappreciation beyond usual global beta is limited. Fiscal consolidation and lower inflation target themes should impact swaps and bonds much more than FX.- M. LiluashviliLatAm Economics: Costa Rica - A new beginning MLI (UK)+44 20 7996 1241david.hauner@bofa.comClaudio PironEmerging Asia FI/FX Strategist Costa Rica's new government prioritizes security, infrastructure and reforms. Policycontinuity and fiscal rule should hold despite weaker tax revenue. Growth may slow to 3.7% in 2026 but will likely stay above peers, led by exports and tourism.-P. Diaz, A. MullerLatAmStrategy:LatAm-Exercisetacticalcaution Merrill Lynch (Singapore)+6566780401claudio.piron@bofa.comGEMs FI Strategy& EconomicsBofAS We retain a constructive long-term view on LatAm local markets but favor tactical See Team Page for List of Analysts caution near term. Higher US rates remain underpriced, so we prefer to seek onlyopportunities with a clear value advantage.C. Gonzalez Rojas, E. AguirreSovereignStrategy:DomRep-UpgradedtoOverweight DomRep upgraded to OW on improved valuations and strongest relative value among regional peers.Tourism could be surprisingly resilient. New trade: Long DOMREP '6Os vsshortbasket of GUATEM'55s and COSTAR'54s.-L. Martin, A. Muller, P.Diaz, J. BrauerWeek ahead:Monetarypolicymeeting inRomania,China,Indonesia. open trades as well as those closedover the past 12 months CTA Monitor:Mixed EMrates.Short Asia FX, mixed EEMEA, long LatAm FX. toward the end of this report. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to'Other Important Disclosures' for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofASecuritiesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithissuerscoveredinitsresearch reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 39 to 41. Analyst Certification on page 37.Valuation & Risk on page 31. The ViewDavid Hauner, CFA >> MLI (UK) Markets have started to price some probability of a Fed hike. High oil prices will likely continue to lead to global inflation upside surprises, and the Fed "interregnum" iscoming to an end. We think vol in EM is likely to pick up and advocate tactical caution.However,we also believe that structural USD weakness keeps EM in a buy-the-dip setupMovEmaycomealive Three months ago we asked "EM, what do you do if Warsh can't cut" (Feb13). Our point was that EM can do well if the Fed is not able to cut due to strong global growth, butEM would be more vulnerable in a scenario of asymmetric growth favoring the US(whichwasmorerelevant inFeb)and/oraglobalstagflationaryshock.Thelatterscenario is clearly becoming increasingly likely as oil prices remain very high.The near-certainty of the next Fed move being a cut has been a powerful rates volatility compressor (as represented by the BofA MOvE indicator), which benefitted EM. UScurve steepening is the ideal "regime" for EM, and rates volatility tends to be lower ineasing cycles than in hiking cycles. It would thus be a concern if, as our US rates teamargues, markets may be increasingly pricing a higher risk that the Fed has to hike.EMimpactdependsonDXY A more hawkish Fed would likely bear-flatten the curve-which in the past decade