中国：经常账户盈余小幅增加

in Q1... supported by smaller services deficit, but trade surplus remained AsiaEconomics Hannah Liu- NIHK hannah.liu@nomura.com+85222521082Ting Lu-NIHK unchanged. ting.lu@nomura.com+85222521306 Preliminary balance of payments data from SAFE showChina's current account surplus dropped from therecord highof USD242bn inQ42025 to USD184bn inQ12026. Still, it is above USD164bn in Q12025. Thesurplus to GDP ratio accordingly fell to 3.8% in Q1 from4.4% in Q4.The goods trade surplus in Q1was unchanged from last year's USD247bn,despitea slightly narrowercustomstradesurplusofUSD264bnfromUSD271bnFollowingourlatestupwardlyrevisedexportand importgrowth forecasts, we expect the trade surplus to narrowtoUSD1,161bnin2026fromUSD1,185bnin2025.ThecurrentaccountsurplustoGDPratioisthusexpectedto edge down to 3.6% in 2026 from 3.7% in 2025.ServicestradedeficitnarrowedtoUSD44bninQ1fromUSD72bninQ12025,withthedeficitintourismservices contracting to USD47bn from USD60bn.Onthefinancialaccount,FDIrecoveredtoUSD34bninQ1 from USD15bn a year earlier, while ODI declined toUSD44bnfromUSD5Obn.Basedondataofonshorebank FX receipts and payments, portfolio investmentnet outflows increased toUSD53bn inQ1fromUSD27bn a year earlier. Appendix A-1 See Disclaimers for Nomura Group entity details. Analyst Certification or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of our compensation is tied to any specificinvestment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc.,Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Groupcompany. Important Disclosures Important disclosures may be read at http://go.nomuranow.com/research/m/Disclosures or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc.If you have any dificulties with the website, please email grpsupport@nomura.com for help. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, anot registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA rules, may not be associated persons of NSl, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241restrictionsoncommunications withcoveredcompanies,public appearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount. Nomura Global Financial Products Inc. (NGFP) Nomura Derivative Products Inc. (NDP) and Nomura International plc. (Niplc) are registered withthe Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the National Futures Association (NFA) as swap dealers. NGFP, NDPI, and Niplc are Disclaimers This publication contains material that has been prepared by the Nomura Group entity identified on page 1 and, if applicable, with thecontributions of one or more Nomura Group entities whose employees and their respective affliations are specified on page 1 or identifiedelsewhere in this publication. The term "Nomura Group" used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. and its affiliates and subsidiaries including:(a)Nomura Securities Co.,Ltd.(NSC')Tokyo,Japan,(b)Nomura Financial Products EuropeGmbH('NFPE'),Germany,(c)NomuraInternational plc ('Niplc), UK, (d) Nomura Securities International, Inc. ('NS'), New York, US, (e) Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd.('NIHK), Hong Kong, (f) Nomura Financial Investment (Korea) Co., Ltd. ('NFIK"), Korea (Information on Nomura analysts registered with theKorea Financial Investment Association (KOFIA') can be found on the KOFIA Intranet at http://dis.kofia.or.kr, (g) Nomura Singapore Ltd. ('NSL")(ABN 48 003 032 513),regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC')and holder of an Australian financial serviceslicence number 246412, (i) Nomura Securities Malaysia Sdn.Bhd. (NSM),Malaysia, (i) NIHK, Taipei Branch (NITB"), Taiwan, (k)NomuraFinancial Advisory and Securities (India) Private Limited ('NFASL"), Mumbai, India (Registered Address: Ceejay House, Level 11, Plot F,Shivsagar Estate,Dr.Annie Besant Road,Worli, Mumbai-400 018, India; Tel: 9122 40374037,Fax:912240374111; CIN No:U74140MH2007PTC169116, SEBI Registration No.for Stock Broking activities : INZ000255633; SEBI Registration No.for Merchant Banking :grievanceemail:investorgrievancesra@nomura.com Webpage:LINk For reports with respect to Indian public companies or authored by India-based NFASL research analysts: (i)Investmentinsecuritiesmarketsissubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybeforeresearch services is disclosed on NFASL webpage. (I) Nomura Fiduciary Research & Consulting Co., Ltd. (NFRC') Tokyo, Japan. (m) Nomura Orient International Securities Co., Ltd ("NOl"), is amajority owned joint venture amongst Nomura Group,Orient International (Holding) Co., Ltd, and Shanghai Huangpu Investment Holding(Group) Co., Ltd. In accordance with the laws of the People's Republic of China ("PRC", excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, for thepur