Netflix将于2027年在15个国家推出广告支持订阅层——更多地关注“用户数量”而非“收入”。

US Media & Telecom Rating Outperform Andrew Chung+1 917 344 8302andrew.chung@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 110.00 USD NFLX Netflix to launch AVOD-tier in 15 more countries in 2027 - moreabout 'Q' than $ No,K-Pop Demon Huntersdid not appear at Netflix Upfront today. It would have been a niceway to cap the event—especially given its 11-month run in the Global Top 10!!!—but thebroader content slate provided a clearer picture of where the $20B content budget is beingdeployed. That slate includes expanded sports coverage, including three additional NFL Close Date13 May 2026NFLX Close Price (USD)87.56Price Target (USD)110.00Upside/(Downside)26%52-Week Range134.12/75.01SPX7,444.25FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)368,698EV (USD) (M)373,151 On the AVOD front, Netflix now reaches ~250 million ad-supported viewers globally, withabout 60% of new subscribers choosing the ad-tier where available. Building on thismomentum, Netflix plans to roll out AVOD in 15 additional countries in 2027, supplementingthe 12 existing markets that represent ~70% of global TV ad spend. These new markets Netflix has guided to ~$3 billion in advertising revenue in 2026, which implies about 3%share of total TV ad spending the 12 countries where AVOD has been available for thepast ~3.5 years. Applying a similar 3% share assumption to the 15 new markets suggestsincremental ad revenue of <$500 million by 2030. Even accounting for some margin of error That said, the strategic rationale may be less about direct revenue contribution from ads andmore about the “Q” in the P x Q x M framework. Introducing an AVOD tier lowers the effectiveprice point for consumers in these highly price-sensitive and competitive markets, whichcan accelerate subscriber growth. This strategy is already in play in existing AVOD marketswhere lower-priced AVOD tier, further amplified by PW-sharing crackdowns, has driven faster INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain our Outperform rating for Netflix with a PT of $110 - unchanged. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Netflix Inc We value NFLX’s shares at an implied 29x multiple (rounded) on FY27 EPS estimates of $3.80 (PT of $110). Two key assumptionsare ‘27E EPS of $3.80 and 29x (rounded) EPS multiple. RISKS Netflix Inc Downside risks: - AVOD does not lift ARM in UCAN as much as expected. Digital advertising may not recover as quickly or asstrongly as we modeled which could lead to lower ARM, particularly in UCAN. Netflix could lose subscribers as streaming getsincreasing competitive. Streaming is getting increasingly competitive with big tech investing more in the space. Competition from RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp •Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon. Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of