标普500指数突破8000点？有可能：我们概述其路径

North America S&P 500 above 8,000? It's possible: we outline how on earnings strength.. HeadofEquity StrategyAmericaBancoHSBCS.Anicole.inui@hsbc.com+55 11 2802 3475Alastair Pinder, CFA sentiment rebound in tech, Al, geopolitics, macro, etc Head EM and Global EquityStrategistHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.alastair.pinder@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5972 +Downside risks includetech earnings slowdown,energysupply shocks,a Fed pivotto hikes not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations TheS&P500 isbackat recordhighs as techstages acomeback,USEquityWrap.4 May.A solid Q1 earnings season is also providing support. We're taking theopportunity to revise our 2026 index EPS estimates up by8%, incorporating thelatestquarterly results.Wenowexpect2026EPSgrowthof20%orUSD325,withtech/Mag7 stillthe main drivers. With higher earnings expectations, we revise ouryear-end S&P 500 target to7,650 from7,500 previously. While earnings remain supportive, sentiment is on shakier ground. The recent rallyhas been relatively narrow in breadth. Most stocks are still trading below their52-week highs, suggesting scope for further upside if participation broadens.For thatto happen, we'd look for a rebound in sentiment across tech, continued Al adoption,and an easing of concerns around geopolitics,trade,and rates. A sentiment rebound could drive the S&P 500 past the 8,000 mark, in our view. Weoutline several potential paths for the index to notch another leg higher, including: +Techre-ratesas IPOs seta higherbarforvaluationsLaggards catch-up as geopolitical and trade uncertainties fade+ Al efficiency gains broaden as margins expandA" Goldilocks" backdrop returns as long-term rates fall We see each ofthese potential paths addingbetween100-700 pts to the S&P500.The clearest route to an additional leg up rests with tech: the sector (includinghyperscalers)nowrepresents over half of the S&P500's market capandmorethan40% of index earnings. As a result, sentiment around tech is one of the biggest swingfactors. We also see long-term rates as key.While the market has partiallydecoupledfrom long-term rate moves, the rate environment may become increasingly importantas tech companies looktofinance capex. Downside risks: What could reverse the rally? Key concerns include sustainedelevated oil prices feeding through to slower economic growth; a slowdown in techearnings coinciding with elevated capex needs; and a hawkish Fed pivot if inflationre-accelerates. Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Issuer of report: Banco HSBC S.A. Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobal InvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com and more than 40% of index earnings. As a result, sentiment around tech is one of the biggestswingfactorsfor theS&P5ooperformance.Valuationslook reasonable,with thesector(ITandMag 7)trading on a forwardP/E of 25.8x andforward 12-month consensus earnings estimatedto grow c31%. That said, valuations remain below prior highs: a return to those levels would addc360 points to the S&P 500.We could also see the sector trading at a premium to prior highsif iPOs of Al/tech stocks set a higher bar for valuations, potentially adding 70o points or more tothe index. During the late-1990s internet boom, tech stocks traded at an average 50%-pluspremium to the overall market; today,that premium is 12% (and below the average since therelease of ChatGPT). to tradeand geopolitical risks have underperformed.The consumer staples sector, for example,isfeelingthehittoconsumptionfromhigheroil prices,alongsidecostpressures linkedtotradepolicy. Industrials is another area of vulnerability to trade, given the sector's reliance on importedMiddle East conflict began as Al beneficiaries outperform. If uncertainty retreats to prior levels,these laggards (highlighted in chart below) could catch up, adding c130 points to the S&P 500. on tech so far, but as adoption widens, the market could start pricing in higher margins acrossother sectors-particularly those that are more labor-intensive. A rebound in sentiment around Aladoption and disruption would likely hinge on a re-rating, supported by clearer evidence of marginand profitability benefits. A major sentiment shift leading to a re-rating for Al adopters could addc200 points to the S&P 500 (assuming both software and financials re-rate) Source:US Consensus BureauHSBC to the"danger zone" cited by our multi-asset team as the level at which risk assets tend to falter.Hawkish messaging from certain Fed members, alongside solid jobs growth and higher headlineinflation pushed yields higher, though they've since eased somewhat. Us mortgage rates alsoremainstubbornlyabove6%.IfyieldsmovelowerinaGoldilocks scenario-disinflationcontinuing towards 2% alongside resilient growth -equity valuations and earnings would likelylift, potentially adding c300 point