灾后国际货币基金组织融资的宏观财政影响：来自综合控制方法的证据

The Macro-Fiscal Impactsof Post-Disaster IMFFinancing: Evidence froma Synthetic ControlApproach Pedro Juarros and Junko Mochizuki WP/26/91 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026MAY IMF Working PaperFiscal Affairs Department The Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Post-Disaster IMF Financing: Evidence from a Synthetic ControlApproachPrepared by Pedro Juarros and Junko Mochizuki* Authorized for distribution by Dora BenedekMay2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:The IMF provides macro-stabilizing liquidity when others cannot. The IMF has developed a set ofinstruments designed to provide rapid financial assistance to countries facing urgent balance of payments needswithout requiring a full-fledged economic program, triggered by exogenous natural disasters shocks. We evaluate theimpact of IMF emergency financing after natural disaster using a synthetic control method. The results show that IMFpost-disaster financing supports a fasterGDPrecovery, withan implied average IMF post-disaster multiplierlargerthan 1. The findings suggest strong liquidity and catalytic effects, enabling countercyclical fiscal responses. However,the resulting increase in public debt underscores the need for credible medium-term fiscal plans and post-disasterconsolidation to maintain debt sustainability. The Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Post-Disaster IMF Financing: Evidencefrom a Synthetic Control Approach Prepared byPedro Juarros and Junko Mochizuki1 Contents Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................3 Robustness..................................................................................................................................................12Potential Omitted Bias from other Financing Instruments............................................................................15 Beyond GDP: The Macro-Fiscal Impacts of IMF Post-Disaster Financing..................................................17 Final Comments................................................................................................................................................20 Annex I. Donor Pool..........................................................................................................................................21 Annex II. Main Specification Including Maldives Case..................................................................................22 Annex III. Robustness.......................................................................................................................................23 References.........................................................................................................................................................28 FIGURES 1. Output Gains of IMF-Post Disaster Financing.................................................................................................102. Robustness.....................................................................................................................................................143. Cumulative GDP Growth 3 Years After Disaster: Actual vs IMF Forecast Recovery......................................154. Exploring the Macro-Fiscal Channels.............................................................................................................19 TABLES 1. IMF Post-Disaster Financing Programs 2002–2019.........................................................................................72. Disaster Risk Financing Instruments at Time of Disaster...............................................................................16 Introduction The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides timely, predictable, and subsidized liquidity to helpstabilize macroeconomic conditions when market access is lost or severely constrained.As thefrequency and impact of natural disasters grow, the urgency for timely and effective post-disaster financing hasbecome increasingly critical. When a large natural disaster shock occurs, timely and effective external financingis critical to supportthe recovery, stabilize macroeconomic conditions, and avoid disorderly adjustments andlong-lasting scarring. While long-term adaptation and resilience-building are essential, even well-preparedcountries face temporary liquidity shortages when natural disaster shocks hit. The IMF’s Emergency NaturalDisaster Assistance (ENDA), Rapid Cre