中国CRO/CDMO：2026年持续增长势头

Pharmaceuticals/Biotechnology China's CRO/CDMO: Sustaining growthmomentum into 2026 ResearchAnalyst+852-2203-6208 Aftertheslowdown in2023-2024,ChinaCRO/CDMOs sawabusinessrecoveryin2025with solid results.This wasprimarilyduetoimprovedfunding conditions anda recovery in R&Dactivities,especiallywithin new modalities.Leading companiesanticipatethismomentumwillcontinueand areguidingfordecentgrowthtargetsin 2026. Intheir recent1Q26 conference calls,these companies expressed confidence inachieving their full-year targets, despite facing Fx headwinds,with some evenseeing potential to raise their guidance.This optimism is supportedbystrong 1Q26results alongside robust growth in new orders, amidst the industry recovery. In our view, the recovery will likely continue into 2026 across differentdevelopmentstages,supportedbyrecoveredR&Ddemandsunderafavourablefunding environment, robust backlog growth, stablised clinical CRO pricing,increased late-stage&commercial projects,and continued strength inTIDES WhatdowepreferwithintheCRO/cDMOspace?Withinourcoverage,WuxiApptec is ourtop pick,as we believe (1)the company's leading position in late-stage+ commercial projects, as well as in TIDES, together with robust backloggrowth, should provide higher earnings visibility and growth certainty; (2) thecompany could benefit from its higher exposure to overseas markets amidst theglobal recovery;(3)itsvaluation(2026EPEof 20.5x,PEG of 1.0)is not demandinggiven its strong growth trajectory; and (4)the increased dividend payout wouldprovide value to shareholders. In addition,we also see rebound potential in Pharmaron,given its undemandingvaluation (2026EPE of 15.3x,PEG of 0.7)and leverage to the sector recovery. Recovery initiated 2025 andcontinued into 1Q26 2025with solid results.This wasprimarilyduetoimprovedfundingconditions anda resurgence in R&D activities, especially within new modalities. Leadingcompanies anticipate this momentum will continue and are guiding for decentgrowth targets in 2026. achieving their full-year targets,despitefacing Fx headwinds, with some evenseeing potential to raise their guidance.This optimism is supportedby strong 1Q26results alongside robust growth in new orders. For these companies,geographically,growth in theUS and Europe remainedrobust, while some companies also observed a recovery in China. Bydevelopment stage,some companiessawdouble-digitordergrowthforpre-INDbusiness, with the trend continuing into early 2026.Clinical CRObusinesses sawearlysignsof recovery,with stablisedpricing.Meanwhile,momentuminlate-stageand commercial projects remained robust,as early stage projects progressedfurtherandTIDESbusiness remained strong. Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChina CRO/CDMOs The recovery will likelycontinue into 2026 stages,supported by recovered R&D demands under a favourablefundingenvironment,robustbackloggrowth,stablisedclinicalcROpricing,increasedlate-stage&commercialprojects,andcontinuedstrengthinTIDES. Improved innovativedrugs fundingin early2026.After a recovery in2024 and a pullback in 2025 due to a high base,overseas fundingfor innovative drugs isshowing earlysignsofimprovement,witha2%YoYdeclinein4M25comparedtoa17%YoYdeclinein2025.FundinginChinagrew5%YoYin2025andanimpressive167%YoYin4M26,suggestingrobustrecoverymomentum. Upfrontpaymentsfromout-licensingdealshaveservedasanalternativefundingsource in China. In contrast to the innovative drug funding from the primarymarket, whichdeclined since2021,theupfrontpaymentfromout-licensingdealsin Chinahave risen since2017,surpassingtheinnovativedrugfunding in2024andreachingUSD7.2bn in2025.AndtheupfrontpaymentinChinatoglobalratio rosefrom7%in2017to45% in4M26.Wethinkthestrong upfront payment fromout-licensing activities will support drugR&D activityin China. Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaCRO/CDMOs RecoveredR&DactivitiesRecovery in IND filings. In line with the improved funding trend, the IND receipts ofUSFDAgrew8%YoYin2024and7%YoYin2025,whiletheinnovativedrugsINDfilingsinChinahavebeenonanuptrendduring2020-2025.WethinktheINDfilingswill graduallyprogress into clinical stage,and hence,this could support therecoveryforclinicalCRObusiness. Recovery inglobal clinical development.The global number of innovative drugsnewly entering clinical stages slowed in 2023, in line with the weaker innovativedrugfundingduringthatperiod.However,asthefundingstartedtorecoverinlate2024 and continued into 2025,global clinical R&D activities started to improve,driven by continued strength in China and a recovery in the US. The number ofinnovative drugsnewlyentered intoclinicalstages rose6%YoYin2024and5%in2025.In China,the number of pipelines have remained anuptrend since 2017,surpassingtheUSsince2020,supportedbyimprovedR&DcapabilitiesandstrongBD momentum. Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChina CRO/CDMOs pipelines.In 2025,the number of ADCs and siRNAs clinical assets increasedsignificantly,which webelievebothmodalitieswillcontinuetogainpopularity in2026. Robustbac