24/7可再生能源：稳定型太阳能与风能的经济性

THE ECONOMICS OFFIRM SOLAR AND WIND 24/ 7 R E N E WA B L E S : T H E ECO N O M I C S O F FI R M S O L A R A N D W I N D © IRENA2026 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, providedthat appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to ISBN: 978-92-9260-736-4 Citation:IRENA (2026),24/7 renewables: The economics of firm solar and wind,International Renewable Energy Agency,Abu Dhabi. About IRENA TheInternational Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA)is an intergovernmental organisationthat supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as theprincipal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository ofpolicy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the Acknowledgements This report was authored by Saied Dardour, Deborah Ayres and Lourdes Zamora, under the guidance of Norela Constantinescu. The authors are grateful for the valuable contributions of IRENA colleagues Francisco Gafaro, Adrian Gonzalez, Bilal Hussain,Gayathri Nair, Danial Saleem, Himalaya Bir Shrestha, Binu Parthan and Yasuhiro Sakuma in the preparation of this study. The report benefited from peer review and comments by: A. Andrade (Directorate-General for Energy and Geology,Portugal); M.B. Ben Ticha and Y. Li (International Atomic Energy Agency); R. Bhattacharyya (BARC); M. Bianciotto and R. Ellis(International Hydropower Association); T. Bjøndal (Ørsted); S. Cathalau (consultant); Y. Chen (consultant); K. Daly (EnergyTag);A. Das (consultant); K. Das (Technical University of Denmark); M. de l’Épine and D. Mugnier (IEA Photovoltaic Power SystemsProgramme); P. González, F. Laverón Simavilla and I. Nanclares Gutiérrez (Iberdrola); A. Jaeger-Waldau and C. Kirchsteiger(European Commission Joint Research Centre); G. Kaur (International Solar Alliance); M.D. Kristiansen and C. Wolter (DanishEnergy Agency); J. Lee, T. Singh and F. Zhao (Global Wind Energy Council); G. Masson (Becquerel Institute); S. Pelland andY. Poissant (Natural Resources Canada); F. Perdu (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission); R. Perez(State University of New York); F.B. Quansah (consultant): M. Quero (Sunntics); K. Rangelova (Ember); J. Seel (Lawrence Editing and production were managed by Francis Field with the support of Stephanie Clarke. The report was edited byJonathan Gorvett and Lisa Mastny, with graphic design by Nacho Sanz. Communications and additional support were For further information or to provide feedback:publications@irena.org This report is available for download:www.irena.org/publicationsDisclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material inthis publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projectsor products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The CONTENTS Figures,tables and boxesAbbreviations EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Beyond LCOE: Why a system perspective matters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .201.2 From system models to project-level benchmarks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 2.1 Measuring the cost of firm renewable power: the firm LCOE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .242.2 How firm renewable costs compare across markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .272.3 Competitiveness with fossil-fuel generation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 FROM COST COMPETITIVENESS TO DEPLOYMENT AT SCALE 3.1 Technology learning: a self-reinforcing cost reduction dynamic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .443.2 Matching technology to context. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .453.3 Enabling deployment: the decisive role of policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46 REFERENCES ANNEXES AMethodological framework for estimating firm LCOE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51BCapital expenditure assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55COperating expenditure assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58 Figure 14Shareofonshorewindprojectsdelivering firm electricity below FIGURES Figure