‘关于我消亡的谣言被严重夸大了’：私募市场的未来

Investing in the age of the megatrends: a‘total portfolio’ approach Perhaps rumors of a demise in private markets have beengreatly exaggerated, but this past year has reiterated theimportance of diversification as a key tool in achievinggreater long-term portfolio resilience. What constitutes In today’s investment environment, risks can come fromanywhere, and the biggest risks, such as AI, can seem to In our annual Large Asset Owner Barometer1, representingthe views of asset owners with a collective US$2 trillion+of assets under ownership, investors told us they believedthat geopolitics and regulatory change represented thegreatest risks to their portfolios over the next three years. In this paper, we argue that a more holistic, totalportfolio approach is required to successfully navigatetoday’s thematically driven markets. The developmentand acceleration of certain megatrends means that allsectors and geographies are exposed to many of thesame disruptive forces. We believe the influence ofAI and decentralization will reverberate across everyindustry globally, creating both generational investmentopportunities and profound market risks. Taking the former Against this backdrop̶and in stark contrast to recentyears̶public markets outperformed private markets,with the overwhelming majority of major indices recordingdouble-digit returns. In 2025, private equity fund raising In short, beneath what might look like a well-diversifiedtop-down portfolio, these accelerating megatrends createwhat we might call ‘stealth concentration risk’. It is thereforecritical that asset owners understand the types of riskthey hold in their portfolio and where they hold it. Withoutintegrated risk oversight, investors may hold duplicated opportunities and exposures at the total portfolio level, withgovernance frameworks that can adapt to ensure portfolios Each of the following sections of this paper explores theways in which the investing universe is evolving in terms ofrisks and opportunities, underpinned by key datapoints that •Public equity vs private equity:More than US$1 trillionof hyperscaler capex is expected in 2026 and 2027, morethan many well-developed countries’ GDP6. •Real assets:By 2028, estimates suggest AI alone couldconsume as much electricity annually as 22% of all A total portfolio approach is in Mercer’s DNA – for over80 years we’ve been a trusted partner for institutions,helping them achieve their overarching investmentobjectives. This requires a culture of collaboration wherebyasset class specialists are aligned with total portfoliooutcomes rather than siloed single-asset success measures. •Fixed income, private debt, & hedge funds:A decadeof financial repression is now behind us. The increase in SOFR8from 0% in 2020 to nearly 4% in 2025 is creating are staying private for longer, and publicequities are increasingly dominated by theMagnificent Seven Seven companies, driven by AI, are responsible for an ever-growing proportion of public equity returns and indices,and their influence in private markets is growing through •Diminishing appeal of public listings: IPO activityremains subdued, while sales to strategic buyers haverisen by 26% and deal values have more than doubled, As public markets narrow, private markets are expandingin both scale and maturity. The number of private-equity-backed companies in the US has risen by 400% from roughly2,000 to more than 11,500, while the count of publicly listed •Renewed exit momentum:After a period of subduedactivity, private equity exits reached a three-year high inthe first half of 2025, with 215 significant transactions The rise in the number of private companies andthe declining number of public companies cannotbe attributed solely to private-equity expansion.Consolidation, mergers and acquisitions among listed •Flexible financing and deeper capital:The expansionof non-bank lending has made private ownershipmore sustainable and given companies the freedom to The trend of more companies choosing to stay private forlonger has coincided with a growing concentration at thetop of public markets, defined by a handful of companieswhose scale and growth have come to dominate globalequity returns. The Magnificent Seven now account AI sits at the heart of publicmarket concentration Nowhere is that interdependence between publicand private markets clearer than in AI. The Mag-7 areboth AI’s principal beneficiaries and primary funders –investing hundreds of billions, directly and indirectly,into the data centers, chips, and energy systems thatunderpin its growth. Between them, they invested an Taken together, these trends point to a clear bifurcationin global markets. Market capitalization is increasinglyconcentrated among a small group of public mega-caps, while growth and innovation is spread across a Real assets:The AI boom is fueling growthbut may lead to doubling up of risk to meet the needs of both societies at large and ourexploding technological cap