2026印度糖业年度报告

Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Report Number:IN2026-0024 Report Name:Sugar Annual Country:India Post:New Delhi ReportCategory:Sugar Prepared By:Shilpita Das, Agricultural Specialist Approved By:Joanna Brown, Agricultural Attaché Report Highlights: India's sugar sector is poised for recovery in marketing year 2026/27 following multipleyears ofproduction deficits. Consecutive favorable monsoons have restored critical groundwater reserves inmajor producing states, enabling both area expansion and improved yields for this water-intensive crop.For the first time in two years, domestic production is expected to exceed consumption, marking asignificant shift in supply dynamics. India's sugar consumption continues evolving along income-stratified patterns, with commercial and institutional buyers now dominating demand while affluenturban households increasingly shift toward alternative healthy sweeteners. Although total sugar importsare expected to remain steady for MY 2026/27, the expected recovery in production should provideIndia greater flexibility to meet domestic needs, fulfill international trade obligations, and support itsambitious ethanol blending targets. Sugarcane Areaand Production:FAS New Delhi projectssugarcane planted and harvested area will reach5.9 million hectares (MHa) in marketing year (MY) 2026/27, with total production expected at463 MMT(see Table 1). This represents atwopercent increase in both area and outputcompared to the current year, driven by the cumulative benefits of consecutive favorablemonsoons in 2024 and 2025(see Figure 1). These weather patterns replenished groundwateraquifers and surface water reservoirs in the primary producing states of Maharashtra, UttarPradesh, and Karnataka—addressing the fundamental constraint for this water-intensive crop. The two-year sequence of above-normal rainfall has restored irrigation capacity that wasseverely depleted during the 2023 El Niño event. Field surveys conducted in March 2026 acrossMaharashtra's sugarcane belt confirmed robust crop establishment and healthy vegetativegrowth, indicating farmers capitalized on improved water availability to expand planting. Theprojected sugar recovery rate of 9.2 percent reflects enhanced sucrose accumulation resultingfrom adequate soil moisture throughout critical growth stages. Government price supportmechanisms, including the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) system and ethanol procurementguarantees under the National Biofuel Policy, continue incentivizing sugarcane cultivation overcompeting crops such as cotton and pulses. The current year's sugarcane production estimate has been revised downward from 465 MMT to455 MMT despite favorable early-season conditions. While the 2024 and 2025 southwestmonsoons initially improved soil moisture following previous drought years, excessive rainfallduring late August through early September 2025 disrupted crop development in Maharashtraand Karnataka. Heavy precipitation caused waterlogging in low-lying areas, restricted fieldoperations during critical growth phases, and induced crop stress. In Maharashtra specifically,intense rainfall from August throughOctober2025hindered the vegetative growthin someratooncrops, reducing productivity in several districts(see Figure 2)1.These localized weather extremes offset the benefits of improved groundwater availability, resulting in lower-than-anticipated yields for MY 2025/26. Production:FAS New Delhi forecasts total sugar production for MY 2026/27 at 33.6 MMT on araw value basis, comprising approximately 31.4 MMT of crystal sugar and 62,000 MT ofkhandsari.2This projection represents a 12 percent increase from the current year's revisedestimate of 30 MMT. The forecast is grounded in field survey observations conducted in March2026 across Maharashtra's primary sugarcane-growing districts, which documented healthy cropstands and favorable growing conditions(seeFigure3). The projected 12 percent production increase is attributable to twoconsecutive years offavorable monsoons that restored groundwater levels and surface water availability in majorproducing regions. This directly addresses sugarcane's intensive water requirements—theprimary constraint on cultivation and yield. The marginal improvement in sugar recovery rate to9.2 percent, up from 8.3 percent in the current year, reflects enhanced sucrose accumulation inwell-irrigated cane fields. Adequate soil moisture throughout vegetative and maturation phasesenables higher sugar content at harvest. Crushing operations are scheduled to commence in October 2026 following normal seasonalpatterns. The forecast assumes continued favorable weather, operational continuity at processingfacilities, and stable policy support through the Fairand Remunerative Price mechanism.Khandsari and jaggery production is expected to increase 3 percent compared to the current year,driven by growing consumer awareness of unrefined sweeteners and shifting preferences to