支付：从Shopify第一季度业绩看PayPal和Adyen的交叉影响——是友敌关系吗？

Payments: Read-across for PayPal and Adyen from Shopify's 1q -Is It a Frenemy? Shopify’s (not covered)1Q26 earnings offered an interesting read-across for otherlarge-cap payment companies such as PayPal and Adyen. This is largely due to Shopify’scontinued traction in Europe (including the potential for growing payments penetration inthe region) and the strong growth of Shop Pay within Shopify Payments. We view Shopify’sgrowth as a negative read-across for PayPal and somewhat mixed for Adyen (with puts andtakes). Harshita Rawat, CFA+1 917 344 8485harshita.rawat@bernsteinsg.com Simran Ratani+1 917 344 8329simran.ratani@bernsteinsg.com Shopify’s GMV growth accelerated to 35% YoYto > $400B annualized. Notably,thisacceleration was not only driven by broad-based strength in the U.S. (which was on amacro level),but also by strength internationally—particularly in Europe. InternationalGMV growth accelerated to 45%, with Europe a notable call-out at 48% reported growth,or 35% on a constant-currency basis. Shopify Payments penetration reached 67%, up from64% a year ago. Management highlighted a path for growing payments penetration, in part,driven by growing adoption in 15 European countries. Viola Chen+1 917 344 8614viola.chen@bernsteinsg.com Shopify also called out wins in its enterprise segment: in the last 2ys, the numberof merchants doing > $100 million in GMV on Shopify has nearly doubled. Merchantsin Shopify’s > $25 million GMV band are its fastest-growing segment. In Q1, Shop Payprocessed $35B of GMV, up 59% year over year. Shop Pay penetration within ShopifyPayments has reached 52%, up from 46% a year ago. Shopify’s growth has likely been challenging for PayPal, despite the two companiesbeing partners. For starters, e-commerce growth ex-Amazon and Shopify is likely quiteweak (though probably better in 1Q), as the two platforms continue to aggregate e-commerce. Within the U.S., Shopify Payments penetration is likely ~90%. While PayPalmaintains a partnership with Shopify, Shop Pay’s increasing penetration erodes PayPal’smarket share and economics among SMBs. SMB commerce—which Shopify primarilyaddresses—is a highly profitable segment for PayPal. Shopify’s growth in Europe has been particularly noteworthy, and we wonderwhether PayPal’s recent weakness in the regionis partly driven by Shopify’s expansion,alongside the growth of Klarna and newer region-specific dynamics (e.g., Revolut Pay inthe UK)—all against a backdrop of guest checkout gradually being phased out. Against thistough competitive landscape, we wonder how PayPal’s Branded business can turn around.Europe remains a market where PayPal holds strong share (e.g., in Germany) and likelyenjoys attractive economics given lower transaction expenses and higher cross-bordervolumes. The two companies also have an unbranded payments partnership in France,though it remains unclear how this is performing. The implications for Adyen are mixed. Shopify represents a potential partner for futuregrowth (including for first-party payments), potentially enabling Adyen to better serve thelucrative SMB and mid-market segments, which Adyen is unlikely to fully pursue on its own.While the companies already partner on the enterprise side (e.g., third-party payments viaAdyen’s payments app on Shopify), there is some inherent first-party versus third-party tension in the relationship. Additionally, Adyen is increasingly growing within the mid-market, where Shopify is also seeing significant traction. With Shopify rapidly expanding inEurope—Adyen’s largest region—we will be closely watching how this relationship evolves.Separately, Shopify holds money transmitter licenses in many U.S. states and is reportedlyseeking to obtain more. We view this as business as usual (i.e., not a conflict with paymentpartners), supporting Shopify’s merchant credit and balance offerings. Finally, as a founding member of Google’s UCP protocol for agentic commerce, Shopify’sagentic journey is also one we are watching closely. UCP is increasingly emerging as thestandard toward which much of the merchant ecosystem is gravitating. As an interestingaside, Shopify’s catalog has structured more than one billion products with clean attributes,real-time pricing, and accurate inventory. According to the company, “traffic from catalog-powered AI searches converts 2x more than traffic from general AI searches.” INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Adyen OP. We rate PayPal OP. DETAILS PLEASE SEE LINKS BELOW TO OUR RECENT RESEARCH: •PayPal 1Q26: A new chapter (May 2025)•Adyen: First acquisition in its 20yr old history; our thoughts (April 2025)•Adyen, Braintree, Stripe, Checkout: Part 1 — A look at key metrics(April 2026)•PayPal + Stripe? The deal that could reshape global payments (February 2026)•Payments: The growing regulatory risk premium? But will the numbers be impacted in the medium-term? (January 2026)•Payments/Fintech 2026: A year to remember? Top themes and stock ideas (January 2026)•PayPal: