印度能源安全：战争的5个后果——向邻国学习

India Energy Security: 5 consequences of war... learning from theneighbors... each.Theenergyresourcesforbothare similar.LimitedOil&Gas (lndia<1%ofglobalreserves &China<3%),abundantcoal (eachwith 10-13%)and large Bio-gaspotential.On Nuclear-Chinahas 5%ofglobalUranium,whereas India has13%Thorium.Batterygasification,Bio-gasand Green Ammonia.Beyondthese, to reduce dependence on energyimports -acceleration of high speed rail network and EV push. +912268421414nikhil.nigania@bernsteinsg.com +912268421486aman.jain@bernsteinsg.com +91226 842 1490uma.menon@bernsteinsg.com 1.Coal Gasification: China leads coal gasification globally with nearly 340 Mn Tonnes ofcapacity,eventually producing 60% of the country's Methanol (lndia imports 90%). Indiaseenlimitedprogresssofar-constrainedbyhighcapex,absenceoflong-termoff-takecontract, and technical challenges due to India's high-ash coal. Despite these issues, webelieve this is one area which will see incremental push going forward. 2.Biogas: India has one of the world's largest biogas potential, yet has tapped less than5% of it. Even though there have been supportive govtpolicies (e.g.SATAT),adoption hasbeenconstrained bypoorwaste segregation,weak collection and inadequate infra.Indiancosts are lowerthan EU by~43% and USby~18%.Demand in India is expectedto triple by2035 as per IEA, supported by govt mandate of CBG blending in CNG/PNG starting at 1%in FY25-26, increasing to 5% by FY28-29, but more push is needed here as well. 3.Green Ammonia:Recently discovered greenammonia prices in India were lowestglobally,even ~15% lower than the current imported grey ammonia prices. India has a ~gas/ ammonia imports. Green NH3 could be a win-win for the govt.,and is in our view theonly real bull case for renewables. While India's 5 Mn tonne Green H2 by 2030 still seems astretch, it is likely to become second largest green NH3 producer by 2030. In fact this couldby Reliance with Samsung C&T for $3Bn recently (not-covered). 4. High speed rail: China has electrified long-distance transport by using high-speedrail - they add as much high speed rail network every 2-3 years as India plans to do by2050.Their busiest route, Beijing-Shanghai(1400 km) isthe same distance as India'sDelhi-Mumbai- which they cover in 5hrs vs. 16hrs in India. Given India's lower geographicalfootprint than China- this can be a big unlock for electrification. 5. EV: EV penetration in China is 51% driven by favorable policies, ability to produce qualityaffordableEVs and strong charging infra -a learning for India with just 4.5% penetration. On supply, China builds capacity at 5-10x of India - in 2025 alone they added as much coalplants, as India will in next 10 years. India has done well in ramping up renewables, and webelieve India must build more long lead indigenous sources-coal-nuclear-pumped storage. Mostofthese options are not easyto execute, but we expect policy announcements to happen for Coal Gasification,GreenAmmonia and Compressed Bio-gas to make upforthe same.We see an acceleration in plannedhigh-speed rail projects coming On the construction side, L&T continues tobe astrong playacross themes mentioned in the note.On utilities,valuations arenotcheap-but we stillremain Outperformon all coal-fired and potential nuclearfocusedgeneration companies in our coveragegiven our thesis -NTPC, Adani Power, and JSw Energy.For renewables, we think Green Ammonia can be an upside with the war.TataPowerand ReNewaretworenewablestockswelikeinourcoverage. biogas potential 1)COALGASIFICATIONIndiahas had coal gasification ambitionsforages,but it has never reallyplayed out.It is a process in which coal isreacted with steamandalimitedamount of oxygen at hightemperature and pressuretoproduce syngas,which canthenbe cleaned andused for power generation or converted into chemicals, methanol, fertilizers, etc- Exhibit 2. Given India has one of the largestcoal reserves globally, coal gasification can help reduce dependence on imported energy and fertilizer-linked feedstocks. volumes of methanol,ammonia andother coal-derived chemicals-annual productwise outputis shown in Exhibit 3.SouthAfrica is another relevant example,where Sasol (not covered)is the company operating coal-to-chemicals atmeaningful scale-Exhibit 4, which helped S.Africa reduce energy imports during the sanctions the country faced for many years. the segment through National Coal Gasification Mission, supported by Rs 85Bn incentiveframework with several projects incontract, lack of fiscal incentives around GST and duties on equipment,and thechallenge of adapting standard technologies toIndia's high-ash coal. Despite these issues, we believe this is one area which will see incremental push going forward. coal gas by Sasol, S. African playerLiquid fuel produced from coal gas by 2)BIOGAS Biogas is a waste-to-energy segment in which agricultural and municipal waste is converted into fuel for different purposes-Exhibit 7; and once upgraded to biomethane,it ca