管理地缘政治价值，抓住机遇，同时降低风险（英）

at stake to seize opportunities Assessing the enterprise value linked to geopolitical shifts and embracing agility canhelp multinational companies thrive in a volatile and fragmented world. Rapid geopolitical shiftsare exposing multinational corporations (MNCs) to well-documentedrisks, but they are also opening vital arenas for growth. This presents CEOs with a dual mandate:to seize opportunities in new markets andtrade corridorswhile managing their organizations’geopolitical exposure and associated risks. Companies that move quickly can use the forcesreshaping the global order—fromregional realignmentstoindustrial-policy measures—toexpand in growing economies such as India and Vietnam, access billions of dollars in industrial During a recent series of interviews with more than 15 CEOs of MNCs, we found business leadersgrappling with a confounding new business environment. “Even in markets I once consideredstable, we now have to account for geopolitical factors,” says the CEO of an automotive company.Echoing this uncertainty, the head of a US technology company notes, “In our strategic planning Two steps can help CEOs gain an edge on competitors, our research suggests: first, quantify thevalue at stake linked to geopolitical developments to guide growth strategies and manage risk; Assessing geopolitical value at stake to guide strategic bets andrisk management Geopolitical developments can significantly affect MNCs’ enterprise value—both positively andnegatively. On the upside, shifts can open new markets or boost demand, rewarding companiesthat can adjust production volumes and prices quickly. For example, after Russia’s invasionof Ukraine, Europe’s efforts to secure non-Russian gas dramatically reshaped the market forliquefied natural gas (LNG). US companies that were able to redirect supply benefited from However, the same geopolitical forces that fuel growth can also erode value. For example, Intelcut its revenue outlook in 2024 in part due to the US Department of Commerce revoking thecompany’s license to sell certain semiconductors to Huawei.3More recently, Jaguar Land Rover Despite the magnitude of the value at stake, few MNCs rigorously measure it. For instance,62 percent of companies we studied consider US–China trade tensions, tariffs, and export controls to be material threats, but only 29 percent have quantified the potential impact, forgoingopportunities to transform geopolitical volatility into a competitive advantage. Estimating the enterprise value linked to geopolitical shifts requires first understanding thecompany’s geopolitical profile. Various tools can serve this purpose, but in this article, we rely onthegeopolitical distance index, a measure of geopolitical alignment developed by the McKinseyGlobal Institute (MGI) based on countries’ voting records in the UN General Assembly.5MGI’sresearch shows that the average geopolitical distance between countries engaged in trade and Quantifying geopolitical value at stake combines geopolitical distance and financial-exposuremetrics (Exhibit 1). The process involves assessing the revenue from each market, applyinga probability weight based on the market’s geopolitical distance from the company’s homemarket (a proxy for divergence), and adjusting the result by a severity factor that reflectsthe impact of stabilizing mechanisms such as free trade agreements, tariff preferences, or Exhibit 1Web <2026>Exhibit <1A> of <4> Formula for calculating geopolitical value at stake(eg, of a geography, function, etc) Magnitude of corporate value:the amount of revenue tied to a geography or functioni(for example, sales in Geopolitical distance:the divergence between the company’s home jurisdiction and geographyion thegeopolitical-alignment spectrum (scaled 0–10, with higher numbers representing greater divergence) Severity adjustment:factor 0 to 1, capturing how the trade and policy environment in trade corridoridampens(closer to 0) the impact of geopolitical developments—as through preferred trade agreements, reduced nontariff McKinsey’s approach to quantifying geopolitical value at stake also identify relevant industrial-policyincentives, tariff mitigation levers,growth opportunities in high-value tradecorridors, and ways to reposition global GlobeLens,McKinsey’s AI-poweredgeopolitics platform, alongside theMcKinsey Value Intelligence Platform,helps multinational corporations size narratives to data-backed, decision-readyinsights on where to reconfigure assets,shift supply, pursue growth, and build In practice, exposure to geopolitically distant geographies without stabilizing mechanisms suchas trade agreements can translate into materially higher value at stake than when such “shockabsorbers” are in place. For example, the EU–Mercosur Partnership Agreement,7which aims toremove 90 percent of duties on EU goods exported to Mercosur countries and curtail nontariff Participating in geopolitically distant markets