上调韩国至中性，下调印度至低配

Equity Strategy Korea up toneutral, India down to underweight ◆We upgradeKorea to neutral as heavy foreign positioninghas unwound andsomecrowded trades have eased ◆Supportive domestic flows and strong earningsled byAI-driven demand underpin the Korea outlook ◆We downgrade India to underweight as potential inflationanddemand pressuresarelikely toimpactearningsgrowth Upgrade Korea to neutral.We were previouslyunderweight Koreaas weconsidered it acrowdedconsensus trade. We werealso concerned aboutKoreanequities becoming morevolatiledue tothe Middle East conflict. Since then, foreigninvestors have reducedtheirexposure. In February alone, foreigninvestorssoldUSD21bn of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix–around3xthe amount purchasedinH2 2025.Outflows in March were even larger. This has clearedthecrowdedpositions. We expect local demand andimpressiveearnings to continue toextendsupport. Herald van der Linde*, CFAHead of Equity Strategy, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedheraldvanderlinde@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6575 Prerna Garg*Asia Equity StrategistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedprerna.garg@hsbc.com.hk+852 9831 6901 ◆Domestic flows remain supportive:Local investors have continued tosteadilybuy Korean equities through multiple channels. Policies introduced since theinauguration of the new government last year have focused on channellingdomestic savings into capital markets. With further reforms expected this year,we anticipate local appetite for equitiestoremainfirm. Adam Qi*Associate, Equity Strategy The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedadam.x.l.qi@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 9311 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations ◆Earnings outlook is compelling:Earnings for the FTSE Korea is expected togrow significantly faster than most major global markets, with forecasts indicatingthey couldtriplethis year. The bulk of this growth is expected to come fromSamsung and SK Hynix, supported by strong demand driven by ongoinginvestment in AI infrastructure and rapid adoption of AI agents. ◆Broader growth drivers are emerging:Beyond the two index heavyweights,growth is also supported by themes such as energy storage, shipbuilding,defence,and nuclear,where Korean players have an edgeoverpeers. Downgrade India to underweight,from neutral.GivenIndia’sreliance on importedenergy and the potential knock-on effects on inflation and domestic demand,we areconcerned about the durability of theongoingearnings recovery. We expect consensusforecasts to be revised down in the coming months from current expectations of 16%y-o-y for 2026. While valuations have corrected materially from their peak, they willappear elevated as earning downgrades feed through.India looks less attractivethanits North East Asian peers inthe currentmacroenvironment. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosureappendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Koreaup,Indiadown ◆Foreigninvestorselling in Korea has been significant, led bySamsung Electronics and SK Hynix, reducingthemarketconcentration risk◆Foreign investor sentimentislikely toremain cautious on Indiaamidweakening growth and forex pressure◆We upgrade Korea to neutral anddowngradeIndia to underweight Upgrade Korea to neutral Since August lastyear, wewereunderweightKorea,notbecause ofscepticism about AI’s long-term potential or the associated demand forchips, servers,or other hardware products,butbecause we viewedKorean equitiestoo much as aconsensus tradewith funds significantlypositioned here. More recently, wehave beenconcernedabouttherise in volatility in Korean equities during theMiddle East conflict.Given the broader backdrop of global uncertainty, we expect volatility toremain elevated, amplified by the leverage used by many retail investors to buy equities. That said, foreign investors reducedtheirpositioning,just asdomestic demand for equitiesremainedresilient, the lattersupported by the administration’s pro-market policy stance. Overall, Korea continues to represent a compelling growth story–led by memory, butincreasingly diversified across areas such as energy storage, defence, and industrials. Againstthis backdrop, we upgrade Korea to neutral. “Ants”hold the line We previously discussed in detailKorean retail investors’–often referredlocally as “ants,”smallin scale, but powerful as a group (seeBack to the old order, 17 November 2021).They haveastrong appetite for overseas markets, with purchases of US equities nearly tripling last yearversus the prior year. An equally importanttrend, however, has beentheirresilientdemand fordomestic equities.Local investorsweresteady buyers of Korean equities through multi