蔚来ES9 SUV需求强劲，预计月销量达5000辆

BuyAsia Forecast Change China Autos & Auto Technology Strong Demand for NIO's "ES9" SUVLeads to Proiected 5,oo0 Monthly Sales Bin Wang Research Analyst VolumeForecastOn April 9, NIO began pre-sales of the"Es9" executive flagship electric SUV with +852-220-35496Wei Huang a starting priceof RMB528k (orRMB420k forBaaS (batteryas a service)customers). Deliveries are expected to commence at the end of May 2026.According to our dealer visits, nationwide cancellable orders (with a RMB 5,o00deposit)are likelyto reach approximately 40,000 units. The"ES9" SUV's key sellingpoints are: (a) its superior passenger space due to its 5,365 mm length, 2,029 mmwidth,1,870mmheight, and3,250mmwheelbase,providing a generous first-classexperience; and (b) the premium design language on the back of the"NiO" brand'sunique aesthetic. Dealers forecast the "Esg" sUV's nationwide monthly salesvolumeto exceed5,oo0units.Consideringthebetter-than-expectedorderflowforthe"ES9"SUV,wereviseupour2026volumeassumptionby5%to420kunits(froma previous 400k units). In particular, we now expect NIO "ES9" sUV's averagemonthlyvolume to reach~5,000units in2H2026after production fullyrampsup.Thus,wereduceourfull-year2026netloss estimateby49.6%toRMB3.665billion,resulting in a higher DCF-derived target price of HK$80.00 (from HKs76.00). Research Associate+852-2203-7057 Sees StrongAprilOrderGrowthonImprovingShowroomTraffic,Drivenby"Esg"DebutandRefreshedModelsAccording to Thinkercar, Nio booked approximately 10.4k, 9.9k, and 9.6k new orders in the first, second, and third weeks of April, respectively. As a result, weestimatethe company'stotalneworderflowforAprilincreased17%MoMtoreach~42k units.Accordingtoourdealer visits,the"Es8"sUV's new orders increased20-30%MoM inApril,thankstotheincreasingshowroomtraffic afterthedebutofthe new"Esg"executive flagship electric SUV. In other words, some potentialcustomers for the"ESg"SUV shifted theirdemand to the high-value"ES8"SUV.Meanwhile,NIOlaunched the facelifted"ES6"and"EC6"SUVs,and"ET5"and NIO "ES8" SUV Reaches 100,000 Deliveries, Contributing to Strong April GroupLevelDeliveryForecast OnApril 23,NIO announced the delivery of its 100,000th"ES8" SUV,whichoccurred 20 daysafter itsdeclaration of 90,000"ES8"units delivered onApril 3rd.Thus, we estimate the"ES8"SUV's full monthly delivery to reach 15,000 units inApril, pushing overall NIO group (NIO brand, ONvO brand, and Firefly brand)deliveries to 34,000 units in April, up 42% YoY. Autos & Auto TechnologyNIO and Cost PressuresNIOhas issued an achievable quarterlyrevenueguidance of RMB24.5-25.2billion (a YoY increase of 103-109%),given the 98% YoY increase in 1Q volume.Additionally,management guided for NiO's1Q26 vehicle gross margin to remainat a similarlevel to 4Q25.This is attributed to a combinationoffurther improvedproduct mix, with the higher-margin NiO brand accounting for 70% of the totalvolume in 1Q26 (a significant increase from 54% in 4Q25), and the negative impactfrom rising memory chip prices, raw material costs, battery prices, and above-mentioned increased cash promotions. Our target price is derived from a DCF analysis. Despite some shortcomings of this approach, we think it is most appropriate for valuing an early-stage, growingcompany such as NiO.We use a five-year forecast horizon that captures the fullmaturation of the two mega trends of China's auto industry: electrification andintelligentization.We apply an 8.5%WAcC,with other assumptions including a4.2% cost of debt, 3.5% risk-free rate, 6.0%market risk premium, beta of 1.0,15%income tax rate, 80% equitylequity+debt ratio, and a 0.5% terminal growth rate(TGR), consistent with our regional coverage. Our DCF-derived target price implies1.4x2026EEV/sales. Key downside risks include: 1) weaker-than-expected demand for its vehicleproducts such as the flagship ES8 SUV, and 2) larger-than-expected losses from"ONvO" mass-market brand operation. Autos & Auto TechnologyNIO NIO is a pioneer in China's premium electric vehicle market.Founded in November 2014, NIO's mission focuses on cultivatingalifestylebrandforpremium smartelectricvehicles through best-in-class infrastructure and service.NIO designs, manufactures, and sells all of its vehicles,underpinned by euro centric design and next generationtechnologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and CashFlow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations BalanceSheet (CNYm) Key Company Metrics Bin Wang+852 220 35496wang.bin@db.com Autos & Auto TechnologyNIO Investment Thesis lished premium brandingand leadershipin autonomous drivingtechnologyandprovides car owners with a differentiated experience. NiO expects its full-year bot-tomlinetoturnpositivein2026,drivenbyambitioussalesgrowthandrobustgrossmargin expansion. The vehicle gross margin is underpinned by the strategic intro-duction of the high-margin NIO ES9 new flagship SUV, substantial reductions inper-unitfixed and sourcing costs due to expanding volume scale (supported bythedebutofthenewON