香港NDR的主要收获

NDR Key takeaways from Hong Kong NDR Target Price(Previous TPUp/DownsideCurrent Price We hosted NDR for SANYI in Hong Kong last week.Investors’ questions aremostlyaroundlarge mining trucks growth outlook and the potential handling ofsolarbusiness.Key highlights:(1)Impressive backlog of mining trucks(overseas) which increased to RMB4.5bn in mid-Apr from RMB3.6bn in Mar; (2)Large-size logistics equipment will see visible margin expansion due to solidbacklog with higher ASP; (3) Management has yet to decide the future of solarbusiness(disposal or asset impairment)which is running atanannual loss of~RMB300mn (including depreciation of RMB200mn which is non-cash).Wefine-tuneour 2026E/27E/28E earnings forecast by-3%/+1%/+3%, to reflecthigher profitforecaston mining trucks and telescopic forklifts, butlowerforecastonroad headers, CCMUsand solar. While we expect the 1Q26 results (to beannounced on 20 May) will likelybeunder pressuredue to weak new business China Capital GoodsWayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Large mining trucks backlog and margin.Large mining trucks backlog(overseas) further increased to RMB4.5bnby mid-Apr.With delivery cycleof3-6 months, most of the orders willlikelybe recognized in 2026E.Moreimportantly, SANYI has started winning “billion-scale (RMB)” tenders relatedto large metal mines recently.Large mining trucks carry 35-40% gross Attractive TCO for customers.SANYI’s large mining trucks areequippedwith 2 sets of Weichai’s engines (2338 HK/000338 CH, BUY), and thereforeable to achieveasubstantiallylower cost compared withusingCummins’(CMI US, NR)engines. SANYI’s large mining trucks ASP is only 5% lowerthan a major US competitor’s.However, SANYI’smodelscan help clientsachieve15-20% lower diesel consumption,and20-30% lower maintenance Highvisibility of aftermarket revenue going forward.Given thataftermarketrevenueaccounts for ~3/4 of the total revenue overtheuseful Related reports: SANYI(BUY)–Multiple growth driversahead–2 Apr 2026 (link) SANYI (BUY)–Profit in 2025 a negativesurprise;Looking for improvement in2026–22 Mar 2026 (link)SANYI(BUY)-Mining truck gainingtraction; Higher earnings forecast and TP–20 Feb 2026 (link)Capital Goods–Key themes in 2026;Focus on Mining equipment + Power fordata centres + Replacement cycle–1Dec 2025 (link) Large size port machinery (STS cranes & yard cranes):The latest backlog reachedRMB5.3bn, includingRMB4bnfromoverseasclients. The backlog carries 22-22% grossmargin, which is much higher than the 18% gross margin recognized in 2025. SANYI Telescopic forklifts:SANYI’s telescopic forklift revenue dropped10% YoY to RMB1.07bnin 2025, whichwas largely due to the increased tariffsimposed on India by the US in early2025 (SANYI’s telescopic forklifts were mainly produced in itsIndian production base). Thatsaid, SANYI expects substantial growth (potentially >100% YoY) in 2026E, as production Capex:SANYI expects the annual capex to be ~RMB1bn over the coming years, basedon the current business plan. Source:Bloomberg, company data,CMBIGM estimates Source:Bloomberg, company data,CMBIGM estimates Risks:(1) further weakness of coal mining activities in China; (2)higher-than-expectedoperating loss ofemerging business; (3) cost inflation due toelevated commodity prices. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analystconfirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days priorto the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report;and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investm