韩国电子商务：五一信号，Coupang的监管风险重新浮现

Korea E-commerce: May Day signal as regulatory risks resurfacefor Coupang returning to Coupang andGMVis stabilizing.Therecent shareprice increase appears tobepricing in this near-term recovery. However, we maintain ourbearish stance, anchored in ourcorethesisonKorea's e-commercemarketwherecompetitionultimatelydictatesmargins.Naverremains firmly incombatmode, whileregulatoryrisks around Coupang havenot eased. +85221232644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com +85221232659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Coupang's GMV grew just 5% YoYversus Naver's 22% YoY.March paying user dataindicates a MoM recovery of 4%for Coupang, which likelyunderpins the recent share pricerecovery.Bulls argue that Coupang's 1P modelis structurally superiorto a less controllable3P marketplace. While we agree that the 1P model has built a strong flywheel, the morerelevant question at this stage is where incremental growth is likely to comefrom. +85221232618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Item goods drive incremental growth,favoring Naver's 3P model. Market datasuggest incremental e-commerce growth is increasingly coming from the item goodscategory(Fashion,cosmetic).Koreandepartment store stockshaverallied on a solidrecovery in luxury and fashion category,and recent KOSiS online GMVtrends indicate that,entering2026,incrementalGMVgrowth is comingfrom itemgoods.Naver'slong-tail 3PSmartStore ecosystem is well positionedto capturethis consumer demand. CoupangEats2.8%OPmarginin2025;OP-to-GMVmargin<1%.CoupangEatsposted a 2.8% 0Pmargin in 2025, up from 1% in 2024 according to Korean filings.Theimprovementlargelyreflectsreduced subsidy intensityamid muted competitivepressure,followingthediscount-heavybattleswithBaemin(DeliveryHeroKorea)in2023-2024began scaling ads in H2 2025. That said, the OP-to-GMV margin remains below 1%, whichis insufficient to meaningfully alter the broader margin narrative for Coupang. Regulatoryuncertainty remains open-ended: waitingfor KoreanFTC decision.Thefounder or the company itself will be designated as the"same person"(controlling entity)under the Fair Trade Act. A founder designation would subject Coupang to chaebol-levelgovernance requirements, including tighter restrictions on intra-grouptransactions,cross-shareholdings, and disclosure standards. While the ruling is unlikely to affect day-to-daystance toward Coupang and large online platform operators more broadly (Link). NPS trim signals lingering Coupang risks.Korea's National Pension Service,ashareholder since Coupang's IPO, has sold most of its roughly KRW 20Obn (USD 140mn)stake early this year (Link), reinforcing market concerns that risks remain. The move isviewed as more than routine profit-taking.As a long-term institutional investor mandatedto consider ESG alongside financial returns, NPS's portfolio adjustment is being read as acautious signalon sustainability,governance,and broader risk management at Coupang. O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. higher Al-related capex thatis likely to pressure margins in the coming quarters. EXHIBIT 1: Asian Internet valuation comparison EXHIBIT 2: In March, Coupang's GMV grew just 5%YoY versus Naver's 22%YoY. share price recovery.2021-2026: Monthly paying users trend breadthare critical-Naver's 3P long-tail ecosystem holds aclear advantage. EXHIBIT9:Launched inQ12025, NaverPlus Storecontinues tosteadilybuild itsuserbase. increasingly fierce in 2026. Coupang's2025grocery shoppers moved elsewhere, with60%of them switching to NaverShopping.2025-2026:Preferred onlinegrocerypurchasingchannels delivery)withinthreeyears,withSKUcoverage expandingsteadilyfrom25%in2026to35% in2027.NaverCoupang EXHIBIT 15: Comparing global peers, retailers with a higher proportion of 3P GMV tend to achieve better operatingprofit (oP) GMV margins, largely fueled byattractive earnings from digital advertising revenue, EXHIBIT16:AccordingtoKoreanfilings, Coupang EatsEXHIBIT 17: Coupang Eats posted a 2.8% 0P margin in 2025, up from 1% in 2024 according to Korean filings.2021-2025: Coupang Eats Operating profit Service revenue inclined54%YoYin2025. positiveplatform margin on eachorderfor Coupang Eats Disclaimer:This analysis is a simplified,high-level estimation of unit economics per one order and platform margins based on our own assumptions and judgement,noton detailedinternal data from thecompanies.Thefiguresrely on stylized inputsfor commission rates,paymentfees,restaurant delivery-feecontributions,andrider payouts, and they do not fully capture variation by merchant tier,geography,time of day,campaign structure, or individual contract terms. Actual economics forrestaurant, advertising monetization, membership revenue, and broader market conditions. This content is for analytical and illustrative purposes only.Source: Corporate reports, Bernstein estimates and analysis CoupangEats. REGULATORYRISKREMAINSOPEN-ENDED Coupang'scorpora