石油市场报告

14 April 2026 •Oil demand is expected to contract by 80 kb/d this year, as the Iran war upends our globaloutlook. This is 730 kb/d less than in last month’sReportand a forecast 1.5 mb/d 2Q26decline would be the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption. Initially, the deepestcuts in oil use have come in the Middle East and Asia Pacific, mainly for naphtha, LPG andjet fuel. However, demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist. •Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d in March, with continued attacks onenergy infrastructure in the Middle East and ongoing restrictions to tanker movements throughthe Strait of Hormuz leading to the largest disruption in history. OPEC+ production fell9.4 mb/d m-o-m to 42.4 mb/d while non-OPEC+ supply declined 770 kb/d m-o-m to 54.7 mb/d,as lower Qatari output offset gains in Brazil and the United States. •Global crude throughputs continue to struggle with disruptions to feedstock supplies andinfrastructure damage that are tightening global product markets. In April, Middle East andfeedstock-constrained refineries in Asia have cut runs by around 6 mb/d, to 77.2 mb/d. Globalcrude runs are now expected to decline by 1 mb/d on average in 2026, to 82.9 mb/d. Refiningmargins temporarily surged as middle distillate cracks reached all-time highs. •Global observed oil inventories fell by 85 mb in March, with stocks outside of the Middle EastGulf drawn down by a significant 205 mb (-6.6 mb/d) as flows through the Strait of Hormuzwere choked off. At the same time, with limited outlets after the effective closure of the Strait,floating storage of crude and oil products in the Middle East rose by 100 mb and onshorecrude stocks in the region were up by 20 mb. China added 40 mb of crude to tanks. •Oil prices posted their largest-ever monthly gain in March in the wake of the most severe oilsupply shock in history. Spot crude benchmarks and differentials soared, outpacing futuresmarkets, as refiners anxiously scrambled to replace locked in Middle Eastern cargoes. At thetime of writing, North Sea Dated crude was trading around $130/bbl – $60/bbl abovepre-conflict levels. Table of contents Disruptions mount.................................................................................................................... 3Strait Down – Stocks Draw as the Loss of Hormuz Flows Tightens Balances ....................... 4Demand...................................................................................................................................... 5Overview ................................................................................................................................. 5Petrochemicals at the Centre of Demand Destruction............................................................ 6OECD ...................................................................................................................................... 7Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................ 11Supply...................................................................................................................................... 14Overview ............................................................................................................................... 14OPEC+ crude supply ............................................................................................................ 15Gulf Production Curtailments: Rolling Back Out the Barrels................................................. 16Russia’s Total Exports Revenues: Gulf War Boosting Revenues ........................................ 21Non-OPEC+ .......................................................................................................................... 24Capital Discipline and Permian Bottlenecks Temper US Shale Growth ............................... 24Refining ................................................................................................................................... 28Overview ............................................................................................................................... 28Regional refining developments ........................................................................................... 29Product cracks and refinery margins .................................................................................... 34European Jet Fuel Markets Scramble for Cover................................................................... 37Stocks ...................................................................................................................................... 44Overview ............................................................................................................................... 44IEA Collective Action will Continue to Provide Market Relief................................................ 45Implied bala