AI专家电话会议#65：光模块市场更新

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY Research AnalystsChina TechnologyBing Duan - NIHK AI Expert Call #65: optical transceiver market updates Quick Note +852 2252 2141 We hosted our AI Expert Call Series #65 today (16 April) with an expert from a leadingoptical communication company. The expert discussed optical transceiver marketdemand, pricing trend and market trend for new products such as XPO (eXtra-densePluggable Optics) and OCS (Optical Circuit Switch). Below, we provide our keytakeaways: Market demand for optical transceivers The expert estimates global demand for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers at 45-50mn/25mn+ units in 2026E, although actual shipments could be around 45mn/15mn,due to component shortages in EML chips, isolators, as well as filters.• For 2027E, the demand for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers will be 60-70mn/40mn+units, and the shipments will be about 55-60mn/30mn units, according to the expert.• For 2026E, the expert estimates demand for 1.6T transceivers will mostly originatefrom NVIDIA [(NVDA US, Not rated), around 15mn units] and Google (GOOGL US,Not rated), around 10mn units]. For 800G transceivers, the expert estimates 2026Edemand from Meta (META US, Not rated) at ~14mn units, from Amazon AWS (AMZNUS, Not rated) at ~7-8mn units, from NVIDIA at ~5mn units, from Google at ~5mnunits, from Oracle (ORCL US, Not rated) at ~7mn units, and from Microsoft (MSFTUS, Not rated) at ~3-4mn units.• Market trend for XPO The 12.8T XPO solution launched by a few optical companies in OFC 2026 consists of8 1.6T optical transceivers. Due to high power consumption, XPO module needs tobe liquid cooled. The XPO module should be mostly used within the rack, whilepluggable optical transceivers are still mainly used for rack-to-rack connections. Theexpert thinks CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) tend to use CPO (Co-Packaged Optics)and NPO (Near-field Package Optics) solutions, instead of XPO.• Prices of optical transceivers and optical chips The expert estimates 800G DR EML-based transceiver price at ~USD380, FR price at~USD460, DR SiPh-based transceiver price at USD350-360, and the prices havedeclined by ~10% y-y in 2026, and could drop further ~10% in 2027E.• For 1.6T optical transceivers, the expert estimates DR SiPh-based transceiver price atUSD1,000-1,100 in 2026E, 1.6T DR EML-based transceiver price at USD1,100-1,200,and 1.6T FR transceiver price at about USD1,300. The price decline may be morethan 10% in 2027E, due to improved yield rates, according to the expert.• The 100G EML has risen from USD5 to ~USD7 now, and may continue to rise,according to the expert. The price of 200G EML is around USD20-25 currently.• OCS market demand OCS is primarily adopted by Google now, with ~18,000 units of demand in 2026E,according to the expert – about 12,000 units will be developed in-house, and the restwill be outsourced to Coherent (COHR US, Not rated) and Lumentum (LITE US, Notrated). The demand from Oracle this year is ~2,000 units, and other CSPs are still innegotiation stage. Next year the total demand may reach ~40,000 units, with Google• accounting for ~30,000 units, according to the expert. NVIDIA may use a combination of OCS and CPO solutions for the next-gen dragonflyarchitecture, according to the expert. While CPO is mainly used in the cabinet, OCS isused outside the cabinet to establish a two-layer networking architecture, establishingan all-optical interconnection.• Appendix A-1 This report has been produced by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. (NIHK), Hong Kong.SeeDisclaimersfor Nomura Group entity details. Analyst Certification I, Bing Duan, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related tothe specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of my compensation is tied to any specific investmentbanking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company. Important Disclosures Online availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura Group research is available onwww.nomuranow.com/research, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, LSEG.Important disclosures may be read athttp://go.nomuranow.com/research/m/Disclosuresor requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc.If you have any difficulties with the website, please emailfor help. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, aportion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed at the front of this report arenot registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA rules, may not be associated persons of NSI, and may not be subject to FINRA