新能源革命下的家庭充电桩：2030年澳大利亚电网承载力前瞻研究报告

Executive summary Assuming this behavior continues and theuptake of EVs aligns with government targetsfor 50% of new vehicles to be EVs by 2030, thecontribution of EVs to peak demand by 2030is likely to be limited to about 1% of total gridpeak demand.1 Thepotential for EVs to add load to theenergysystem at times of peak demandis a risk that many parties have interest in,particularlythe energy network operators(DNSPs and TNSPs). A simple ‘back of theenvelope’ exercise is sufficient to show that arelatively small level of EV transition has thepotentialtocauseseriousproblemsfor networks if the majority of EV chargingoccurs when people return home from workin the evening These consumer behaviours will deliver anincrease in demand during the middle of theday,which will help support the ongoingintegration of solar into the grid. They will alsoseeincreased network utilisation at night,whichwilldrivedownthenetworkcomponent of energy bills for all users. Work of this nature has been done by CSIROandMelbourne University among others,generallybased on sample data from EVchargingtrial programs in non-Australianjurisdictions. These studies estimate that theimpact on the grid during peak times couldbe as much as 2 kW per vehicle.The CSIROwork has been used to inform AEMO's energysystemplanningdocumentsandarebeingrelied upon in the formation ofgovernment policy. This aligns with global trends, particularly inNorway, the leader in the global EV market,where the transition of the first 20% of on-roadpassenger vehicles to electric hasresultedin a negligible increase in peakdemand. The key takeaway is in line with the findingsfromthe recent IEA Global EV Outlookreport.2The Australian grid is relatively robustby global standards and will be augmentedover time inresponse topopulation growthand increasing electrification outside of thetransport sector. In the near term, our focusneeds to be on accelerating uptake of EVsand supporting consumers in making grid-friendly choices, not regulating to managepotential EV-related grid impacts.The risk ofregulationat this stage is that manyproposed interventions could drive up costsand reduce consumer choice. As a contribution to this ongoing discussion,the EVC has drawn together real-world dataonconsumer EV charging behaviour inAustralia. From multiple independent pieces of work, itis apparent that Australian consumers withEVsare currently choosing to self-managetheirEV charging to a significant degree.Mostat-home EV charging currently takesplaceeither in the middle of the night orduring the middle of the day, with relativelylittle charging occurring during peak periods.Contributionper EV to evening grid peakdemand appears to be on the order of 250W. Case Studies (C4NET) The Centre for New Energy technology (C4NET) were commissioned by Solar Victoria toanalyse the usage behaviour of 5000 consumers who had accessed their scheme to purchaseBattery electric vehicles (BEVs). What they found was that overall consumption at peak time rose on average 200-240W, withthe bulk of increased energy use occurring off-peak. These results were not segmented bywhether consumers had a time-of-use (TOU) tariff or not. https://c4net.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EV-Rebate-recipient-observations-GENERAL-FINDINGS-DECK-ALL-ENERGY-2023-EVDW.pdf ARENA trials - AGL The AGL trial followed 200 EV owners that would have their charging controlled via a freeEVSE.3It compared to 100 EV owners on a TOU tariff. Thegraph above shows the difference in EV charger consumption on average acrossconsumerswith TOU tariffs and without.In the 6pm-8pm peak period,EVSE on TOUconsumed around 110W/EV, while those without consumed on average about 220W/EV. The above graph shows the effect of the EVSE control. The reason the orange controlledtroughs don’t go to zero is because those participants had the option to opt-out when theyneeded to charge their car. The morning orange trough averages about 25W/EV as most carsare already charged by then. The 6-8pm peak time controlled usage is also around 25W/EV, an85W/EV reduction on TOU. When calculating the value of smart charging from the study, the authors elected to comparethe controlled charger kWh to the baseline kWh rather than the TOU tariff usage. 34% ofcustomers in the baseline had TOU tariffs. In doing so they calculated a $33 annual wholesalemarket benefit per charger. If the controlled charger kWh had been compared to the TOUtariff usage, the calculated annual wholesale market benefit per charger would have been less. They note that this figure does not include cost of installing / operating / maintaining thesystem or communications / customer support and issue resolution around the orchestrationsolution. They note specifically that “much of the wholesale market benefit may also be able to beachieved with an appropriately designed TOU tariff”. ARENA trials - Origin The Origin trial sampled 73 EV owners from around Australia.4About 71% of themalreadyhad a so