凯雷：2024年信贷市场展望报告：“Never Let Me Go”银行脱媒时代的竞争与机遇（英文原版+译版）（14页）.pdf_三个皮匠报告

̒Never Let Me Go’: Competitionand Opportunityin the Era ofBank Disintermediation EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Markets rebounded sharply following the November and December 2023 Fed meetings, as therisk of recession receded and rate cuts came into view. Loan and bond issuance set recordsthrough the first two months of the year, with credit spreads at their tightest levels since theonset of the pandemic. Much of this activity involved bank-arranged refinancing of loans originated during the periodwhen private credit’s market share increased substantially relative to broadly syndicatedloans. Bank disintermediation continues to gather pace, but new competitive fault lines haveemerged. It is one thing to disintermediate loans from bank balance sheets. It’s quite another todisintermediate the banks themselves from their most prized clients and customers. As bank balance sheets become more constrained due to regulation and other factors, theirlending decisions will become even more sensitized to relationship considerations, especiallyfor large banks who derive a disproportionate share of their operating earnings fromnoninterest income. While this may constrain the growth (or expected returns) of direct lenderscompeting directly with banks for larger borrowers, it should create more opportunities virtuallyeverywhere else, as private funds partner with banks to assume more of their assets in someareas and displace them entirely in many others. Market narratives can be fickle things. A year ago, as theFed was taking base rates to levels that were unimaginablejust two years’ prior (Figure 1), market participants preparedfor the recession most analysts thought was necessary toextirpate price pressures from the system. It was furtherassumed that once inflation returned to target, the Fedwould swiftly take base rates back down to more “normal”levels, leaving longer-term discount rates largely unaffected.These broadly shared expectations produced a plunge inM&A activity and defensive market positioning, as investorsawaited signs of the inevitable downturn and aggressiverate cuts that would soon follow. This has, in turn, led to a reconsideration of credit marketnarratives. A year ago, we warned of the “triumphalism”that characterized discussions of private credit’sdisplacement of more traditional forms of finance. Bankshave not only returned to the market in force in 2024, butmuch of their activity has been concentrated on refinancingborrowers out of the more expensive loans originatedduring the period when private credit was “the only gamein town.” A recalibration of expectations seems in order. Bank disintermediation continues to gather pace, but newcompetitive fault lines have emerged. It is one thing todisintermediate loans from bank balance sheets. It’s quiteanother to disintermediate the banks themselves from theirmost prized clients and customers. As more credit marketassets inevitably gravitate from banks to private portfolios,expect banks to mount a more vigorous defense of thesmaller, but more lucrative, remaining territories; willing tocede assets but not the relationships responsible for theirmost important income streams. The economy proved more resilient than expected. U.S. GDPgrowth accelerated in the period following the Fed’s last ratehike, even as inflation waned. The new narrative, born in thewake of the November 2023 FOMC meeting, was that the riskof recession had dropped materially but the expected ratecuts would arrive just the same (Figure 2, page 4). This setthe stage for a remarkable rally in asset prices and marketliquidity conditions. A MARKET LOOKING MORE LIKE 2021THAN 2022-23 large-cap tech stocks. Bitcoin has nearly doubled. Memecoins are back in vogue. And credit markets have been redhot, with spreads at the tightest levels since the onset ofthe pandemic and bond and loan issuance at record levelsthrough the first two months of the year (Figure 4, page 5). The proximate spark for the recent rally in asset prices wasthe strongly hinted conclusion to the Fed’s tightening cyclein November 2023, followed by the promise of rate cuts thefollowing month. These announcements were premised ona rate of disinflation (at that time) that would have returnedcore inflation to the Fed’s target by June 2024. Since then,the monthly rate of disinflation has more than halved, whichwould push the return of “price stability” out to the middleof next year. Futures markets have dialed back rate cutexpectations, from nearly seven at the start of the year tojust three now (Figure 3, page 5). Refinancing has been the main driver of 2024 issuance,accounting for more than 64% of leveraged loans and 88% ofhigh-yield bonds (M&A accounted for a trivial share of year-to-date issuance, though one suspects that’s likely to changemeaningfully in the months ahead; Figure 5, page 6). Anda non-trivial share of that refinancing involves borrowersopportunistically swapping out private credit in favor ofcheaper syndicated loans. On