中国出口：春节扭曲效应，非需求冲击

Exports: LNY distortion, notdemand shock The March export slowdown largely reflects LNY distortionsrather than a sharp deterioration in external demand.Adjusted for seasonality, Q1 exports remained strong,supported by robust green-tech and AI-related shipments.This should continue to underpin GDP growth despitegeopolitical headwinds. Yingke Zhou+852 2903 2653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Ying Zhang+852 2903 2652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong •March: 2.5% y/y for exports, and 27.8% y/y for imports (both in USD terms)•Bloomberg consensus (Barclays): 8.6% y/y (12%) for exports, and 13.9% y/y (15%) forimports•Jan-Feb: +21.8% y/y YTD for exports, and +19.8% y/y YTD for imports (both in USDterms) China’s export growth slowed sharply to 2.5% y/y in March from a four-year high of 21.8% inJan–Feb. We believe this correction largely reflects Lunar New Year distortions – specifically ahigh base – rather than a sudden deterioration in external demand linked to the Middle Eastconflict. Historically, Chinese exports have been highly volatile in the first quarter, with anaverage swing of about 17pp between the March print and the combined Jan-Feb figure overthe past decade (compared with a 19pp swing in Q1 26), largely due to variations in the timing ofthe Lunar New Year holiday. To better gauge the trade developments, we exclude the LNY distortion and consider the Q1export print as a whole, which came in at 14.7% y/y, still visibly higher than the 2025 annualgrowth of 5.5%. Moreover, on a sequential basis, we note exports rebounded significantly, rising11% 3m/3m sa in March compared with a 1.8% increase in December. We think robust exportsshould provide solid support to Q1 GDP growth due on 16 April. The breakdown of the datashowed the export strength was led by high-tech products – mainly green-tech and AI-relatedgoods – including EVs (+78% y/y in Q1), lithium batteries (+50%), wind turbines (+45%) andsemiconductors (+78%). While the Middle East conflict could weigh on global growth and disrupt trade logistics, thesharp rebound in the PMI new export orders component in March and anecdotal evidence ofrising green-tech export orders, suggests that the near-term negative impact has been limited. Ifanything, a prolonged Middle East conflict could accelerate the global green transition,ultimately benefiting China as the world’s leading green-technology powerhouse. Thisreinforces our view that exports will remain a key driver of GDP growth this year. Recent news reports highlight a surge in export orders for solar panels, wind turbines, electricvehicles, and other electrified products in March (see Economics / Sustainable Investing: China's green transition: gains and opportunities, 8 April 2026). For example, from April 1, 2026, the UKgovernment is removingtariffson various industrial goods, including specificoffshorewindenergy components, to support British manufacturing and green energy goals. BYD securedanother 2.6 GWh overseas order, to supply 468 energy storage systems for four solar storagepower plants in Chile in late March1. Details of March export data •By destination:Export growth broadly weakened across major markets in March. Shipmentsto the US resumed their sharp decline, falling 26.5% y/y (Jan-Feb: -11%). Export growth to theEU (Mar: 8.6%, Jan-Feb: 27.8%), UK (Mar: 3.4%, Jan-Feb: 26.6%), and Asean (Mar: 6.9%; Jan-Feb: 29.2%), also moderated to single digits. Notably, exports to Africa, which surged 27% y/yin 2025 and nearly 50% in Jan-Feb, slowed materially, to 3.1% in March, with its contributionto overall export growth dropping to 0.2pp in March from 2.6pp in the first two months of thisyear. Exports to LatAm fell 3.7%aftersix consecutive months of expansion. By contrast,exports to Japan, Korea and Taiwan remained relatively stable, rising 16% y/yaftera 19%gain in Jan-Feb. •By product:Major export categories generally turned weaker in March, with semiconductorsan exception. Semiconductor exports surged 84.9% y/y following a 73% gain in Jan-Feb. Autoexports remained relatively resilient, though the pace eased to 44% from 67% in Jan-Feb. Incontrast, exports of home appliances (Mar: -15%; Jan-Feb: 11%) and furniture (Mar: -34%,Jan-Feb: 25%) fell sharply. Exports of mechanical and electrical products also moderated(Mar: 11%; Jan-Feb: 27%), while general equipment and machinery swung into contraction(Mar: -15%, Jan-Feb: 19%). March imports rose China’s imports rose 27.8% y/y in March, up from 19.8% in Jan-Feb, marking the fastestexpansion in more than four years. Strong gains in mechanical and electrical products, andagricultural imports more thanoffsetdeclines in autos and energy-related products. On a volume basis, imports of energy-related products contracted in the first month followingthe Middle East conflict. Natural gas imports fell 11% y/y, the steepest decline in a year, whilethe dr