IBM：卷入SaaS估值调整潮是合理还是过度？目标价降至280美元

International Business Machines Corp April Li+1 917 344 8339 Rating Market-Perform Price Target 280.00 USD(330.00OLD) IBM: Getting caught up in the SaaS-pocalypse - fair or overdone?Reducing TP to $280, reiterate Market-Perform Over the past 5 years IBM has undergone a significant re-rating from hardware to softwarePE multiples only to recently de-rate along with other software peers. This note dives intovaluation and provides a preview on FQ1’26 earnings (April 22). IBM’s valuation has expanded meaningfully over the past 5 years,migrating fromhardware-like multiples toward levels of software peers. However,since peaking at 26x inJune 2025, IBM’s forward PE has de-rated meaningfully to 19x today as it got caughtup in the SaaS-pocalypse,and is now trading like a pure-play software company. On a SOTP basis, excluding Quantum, IBM now trades at a premium to what its mixsuggests.We see three potential reasons for this: 1. IBM’s software pricing appears moreconsumption/workload vs “seat based”; 2. Valuation may embed some Quantum optionality;and 3. IBM’s strong execution in M&A and higher profitability. What about the quarter?In the past 8 quarters, IBM’s EPS has beat consensus by 7.5%on average suggesting that buyside expectations may be higher than FQ1’26 consensus of$1.80 EPS (and Bernstein at $1.76). The early close of Confluent acquisition on March 17th Table Of Contents Part I: IBM’s 5-Year Re-Rating Towards Software-Like Multiples...........................................................................................................................2Part II: But IBM has got caught up in the SaaS-pocalypse - Is this Fair or Overdone?....................................................................................5Part III: IBM Seems to Command a Premium, but Why?............................................................................................................................................7Consumption vs Seat-Based Software Pricing......................................................................................................................................................7Is It Time for Quantum?..................................................................................................................................................................................................9Solid execution in M&A, But Inorganic Profit Growth Comes at a Real Cost.............................................................................................. 9PART IV: What about the quarter?.................................................................................................................................................................................. 10 DETAILS PART I: IBM’S 5-YEAR RE-RATING TOWARDS SOFTWARE-LIKE MULTIPLES IBM’s valuation has expanded meaningfully over the past five years, migrating from hardware-like multiples towardlevels historically associated with software peers (Exhibit 1).We believe this re-rating reflects a genuine improvementin the company’s earnings quality, driven by the Kyndryl spin-off and a series of well-executed, software-focused acquisitions.The shift has been tangible and observable, particularly in IBM’s profit and margin profile. From FY21 to FY25, software’scontribution to PTI increased, driven by an approximately 13 pt expansion in software PTI margins. This margin uplift was akey driver of IBM’s 13% total PTI CAGR over the period, marking a clear step-change in the company’s underlying profitability(Exhibit 2 - Exhibit 4). The shift was catalyzed by the 2021 Kyndryl separation, which reduced exposure to lower-value, labor-intensive managed infrastructure services, and reinforced by a multi-year software investment cycle centered on Red Hat andtargeted M&A. As IBM increased its exposure to higher-margin profit streams, investors became more willing to assign highervaluation multiples to a business increasingly viewed as more recurring, more strategic, and structurally highermargin.Consistent with this shift, IBM’s valuation framework has gradually migrated away from hardware peers towardsoftware peers. While the recent pullback has compressed the stock’s multiple, it has done so from a significantly higher richerpoint, which is why the de-rating on its own does not, in our view, make the shares appear inexpensive- more details to follow. EXHIBIT 1:IBM P/E vs. Software/Hardware/Consulting basket Consulting peers components: ACN, CAP, TCS, INFO, CTSH Hardware peers components: HPE, HPQ, DELL, CSCO, NTAP, PSTGSource: Bloomberg consensus (updated as of 4/14/26), Bernstein analysis PART II: BUT IBM HAS GOT CAUGHT UP IN THE SAAS-POCALYPSE - IS THIS FAIR OR OVERDONE? However,since peaking at 26x in June 2025, IBM’s forward PE has de-rated meaningfully to 19x today as it got caughtup in the SaaS-pocalypse, and is now trading like a pure-play software company. From a sum-of-the-parts perspective, while IBM has clearly de-rate