业务发展公司（BDCs）：资金流动呈下降趋势

Declining in Flow Motion We expect perpetual BDCs to continue to face elevatedredemptions, with most capping at 5% of NAV. We see thisincreasing sector leverage gradually, which could pressureratings for some. BDC spreads are about 25bpoffthe widesbut levels may stabilize. We downgrade OCINCC to MW. Peter Troisi+1 212 412 3695peter.troisi@barclays.comBCI, US Justin Moreno+1 212 526 4074justin.moreno@barclays.comBCI, US •We expect most perpetual BDCs to continue to see elevated withdrawal requests over thecoming quarters. However, we believe most of them will cap redemptions at 5% of NAV, andin fact some have already stated their intention to do so in future quarters (eg, APODS andOCINCC). Ishika Goyal+1 212 526 3789ishika.goyal1@barclays.comBCI, US •Persistent but gated outflows would gradually erode the liquidity of perpetualBDCs, potentially increase their leverage and further encumber assets—all clearly credit-negative. Although redemptions were elevated in 1Q26, these outcomes have not yetmaterialized in a real way, as inflows in the quarter ($6bn) helped mitigate liquidity pressurefrom outflows ($7bn). •However, starting this quarter, we expect net flows to present a larger call on the liquidity ofperpetual BDCs as inflows are likely to continue to decline and withdrawals are likely to benear or at the 5% capped threshold for most of them. •Clearly, replacing equity (when it is redeemed) with secured debt is leveraging and thereforecredit negative. We believe the bond spreads of most perpetual BDCs already reasonablyreflect this risk, but it likely will limit how much more their unsecured valuations canimprove. Perpetual BDCs have more leverage capacity than their public peers, by design, asrating agencies require higherbuffersfor them given redemption risk. •We estimate it would take the median BDC approximately four quarters to reach the top endof its target leverage range (typically 1.25x), which roughly corresponds to the point that theywould run out of secured-debt capacity from banks (based on their current commitments).We believe BDCs that choose to increase the upper bound of their leverage target could facepotential ratings pressure. This is consequential for them because most are rated BBB-. •We downgrade Blue Owl Credit Income Corp. (OCINCC) to Market Weight fromOverweight. Investors have looked past the credit's solid fundamentals because ofidiosyncratic issues with Blue Owl, and we expect that to continue, posing challenges forOCINCC to outperform. Downside risk to the rating is mitigated by its high starting spreads ofabout g+300bp on its 2030-31 bonds and ticker level OAD of only 2.8. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 17.Completed: 06-Apr-26, 02:09 GMTReleased: 06-Apr-26, 10:35 GMTRestricted - External The cohort consists of eight perpetual BDCs with IG debt (APODS, ARESII, BCRED, GCRED, HLEND, NHPIFS, OAKSCF,OCINCC), excluding BARPCC and GSCRED since they have yet to report 1Q26 data.Source: Company filings, Barclays Research Relative Value Sector Valuation View BDCs (-1.2%) continue to underperform the IG (-0.1%) and Finco (-0.8%) indices on an excessreturns basis year-to-date (Figure 2). BDC OAS is +236bp, or about 50bp wide of BBs and 95bptight to Bs (Figure 3). BDC composite spreads are roughly 60bp wider year-to-date but are about25bpoffthe wides reached in mid-March (Figure 4). We believe sector tightening reflects themajority of 1Q26 redemptions having been announced (ie, moving past the expected near-term"bad news" ). That said, we believe several larger IG investors remain underweight BDCs and donot expect them to chase the sector tighter, based on our conversations, though they mightdeploy capital to it at wider entry points. Other types of credit investors, including securitizedproducts, high yield and distressed have expressed some long interest in BDCs but are alsoproceeding with caution, from what we can observe from our client interactions. Downgrade OCINCC to Market Weight from Overweight We have been wrong on our OCINCC rating. The credit has underperformed the BDC index byabout 35bp this year on an excess returns basis, and we no longer see potential for performanceto recover enough to warrant an Overweight rating. Our prior rating had been predicated onOCINCC's top-quartile credit metrics, including leverage roughly 25% lower than the industryaverage, 65% lower non-accruals, 10% lower PIK and 30% lowersoftwareexposure. However, investors have looked past those solid fundamentals beca