气候变化与中央银行：宏观经济挑战和来自非洲的证据（英）

Climate change and centralbanking: macroeconomicchallenges and evidence fromAfrica byTorsten Ehlers,Leonardo Gambacorta and LiviaPancotto Monetary and Economic Department April 2026 JEL classification: E37, E52, E58, G28, Q54. Keywords: central banking; physical risk; transition risk;climate-related shocks; BIS-climate modelling; Africaneconomies. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). ©Bank for International Settlements 2026. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may bereproduced or translated provided the source is stated. Climate change and central banking: macroeconomicchallenges and evidence from Africa Torsten Ehlers, Leonardo Gambacorta and Livia Pancotto* Abstract Climate change is an important source of macroeconomic risk with direct implicationsfor monetary policy and financial stability. Physical risks, including more frequent andsevere weather events, disrupt production and damage infrastructure, generatingsupply and demand side pressures that affect output and inflation. Transition risksarising from climate policy, technological and market shifts can tighten financialconditions and alter relative prices, creating short-term adjustment costs, whileinfluencing long-term growth prospects. These dynamics are particularly relevant inAfrican economies, where climate shocks propagate rapidly through food and energychannels, reflecting greater sectoral exposure and more limited fiscal and insurancebuffers. Drawing on simulations from the BIS-Multisector (BIS-MS) model and globalevidence on weather disasters, this paper shows that climate-related shocks generateheterogeneous macroeconomic effects within policy-relevant horizons. Economiesmore exposed to energy-intensive and agricultural sectors – including several Africancountries – experience stronger inflationary pressures, deeper output contractionsand larger policy rate adjustments. These findings highlight the importance ofstrengthening data and modelling frameworks to better account for climate-relatedrisks in monetary policy and financial stability analysis. JEL classification: E37, E52, E58, G28, Q54. Keywords: central banking; physical risk; transition risk; climate-related shocks; BIS-climate modelling; African economies. 1. Introduction Climate change has become a structural challenge for the global economy, withvisible macroeconomic implications. It directly affects central banks’ core mandatesthrough its impact on growth, inflation dynamics and financial conditions. Risingtemperatures, more frequent extreme weather events, and uncertainty associatedwith the global transition towards a low-carbon economy generate risks that interactwith traditional monetary and financial policy channels in complex and often non-linear ways. The materialisation of physical risks – stemming from acute extreme weatherevents such as floods, storms and heatwaves, as well as from chronic shifts – canimpair production capacity, damage infrastructure, disrupt supply chains and reducelabour productivity. Depending on the nature of the event, demand may also beaffected. As a result, economic activity slows, while prices may rise in particular wheredemand is inelastic or supported by aid relief. For central banks, this complicates theassessment of climate-related shocks and may give rise to policy trade-offs betweenstabilising inflation and supporting economic recovery. Transition risks, arising fromclimate-relatedpolicy changes,technological advances and evolving marketpreferences, can also influence macroeconomic outcomes. Credible and orderlymitigation policies may stimulate investment, innovation and long-term productivity;delayed or abrupt adjustments, by contrast, can increase volatility, generate strandedassets and trigger shifts in financial valuations. Theserisks are particularly relevant in Africa(IPCC(2022)).Many Africaneconomies are highly exposed to physical climate shocks due to their climaticconditions, reliance on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and energy, andlimited fiscal and insurance buffers. At the same time, the continent faces substantialchallenges and opportunities associated with the net zero transition, including largeinvestment needs in renewable energy, resilient infrastructure and new technologies.Transition policies and renewable energy investments in advanced economies alsoaffect demand for critical minerals and fossil fuels, which are key exports for severalAfrican countries. Understandinghow climate-related risks propagate through the economyrequires data and modelling approaches that incorporate sectoral interdependenciesandthe transmission of shocks through production networks.While standardmacroeconomic frameworks provide useful benchmarks, they are not designed tocapture these mechanisms in detail. Against this background, this paper