全球贸易增长持续，但脆弱性上升

Facts and figures Global trade growth continues,but fragility rises H I G H L I G H T S 1Global trade in goods and services grew by$2.5trillion in 2025, reaching $35trillion, andis projected to expand further in Q1 2026. 2Trade gains in 2025 were broad-based,with East Asia and Africa posting thestrongest advances. South–South trade alsooutperformed overall global trends. 3Amid United States–China trade decoupling,several connector countries have emerged,stabilizing flows and supporting globaltrade growth despite rising geopoliticalfragmentation. 4A strong manufacturing sector, led byelectronics trade, drove global trade growth,while the automotive sector remainedsubdued amid rising protectionism. Trade growth is expected to slowconsiderably in 2026, weighed downby geopolitical uncertainties, persistentinflationary pressures and rising trade costs,with only a few sectors expected to see tradeexpansion.5 Global trade trends and nowcast Global trade growth remained robust in Q4 2025, rising roughly 2 per cent quarter-over-quarter(QoQ). Both goods and services contributed, with goods up 1.7 per cent and services nearly3 per cent. UNCTAD’s nowcast indicates that this positive trend continued in Q1 2026, withgoods and services expected to grow 2.5 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, QoQ. On atrailing four-quarter basis, trade growth was strong, reflecting a persistent expansion rather thanshort-term fluctuations. However, growth in services has slowed over the course of the last fourquarters. These positive results are being tested by the macroeconomic consequences of theongoing conflict in the Middle East.1 Global trade in goods started strong in 2026, while services slowed Trade value in goods and services: trailing four quarters and quarterly growth Global trade inflation fell in Q4 2025 but rebounded to nearly 1.5 per cent QoQ in Q1 2026,indicating that part of early-2026 trade growth is driven by higher prices rather than volumes,which suggests that trade growth remains relatively weak. Over the past 12 months, tradeinflation has averaged around 4 per cent, reflecting continued upward pressure on the value ofglobal trade. Price pressures on trade goods pick up in early 2026 Overall price of traded goods: trailing four quarters and quarterly growth Summary and Outlook The value of global trade increased substantially during 2025 reaching about $35 trillion, anincrease of around $2.5 trillion, or almost 7.5 per cent, compared to 2024. Goods accountfor about $1.8 trillion of that rise (about 7 per cent growth), while services contributed roughly$700 billion (about 8 per cent growth). Trade growth was supported by developing economiesin East Asia and Africa and strong South–South trade. While trade growth remained solid in the first quarter of 2026, global trade is expected to slow forthe remainder of the year. The conflict in the Middle East and the shipping disruptions in the Straitof Hormuz are likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures weighing on a global economy alreadychallenged by geopolitical tensions, policy shifts, and limited fiscal space in many countries.Rising energy costs, combined with higher trade costs from tariffs, regulatory changes, anderosion of trade rules, further dampen prospects. Although global demand for goods relatedto AI and some consumer-driven markets and sectors, such as digital technologies and greenindustries, remain very strong and may provide support to global trade, these factors are unlikelyto offset current geoeconomic challenges and mounting trade frictions. On the positive side, tradesentiment in many developing regions remains broadly supportive, sustaining commitments toopenness and investment in cross-border commerce. This could help expand intra-regional andSouth–South trade. Overall, however, the outlook for the incoming quarters points to slowerglobal trade growth, with risks skewed to the downside compared with the robust performanceobserved in 2025. East Asia and Africa drove trade in 2025 Imports and exports growth: percentage-point difference from global average,2025 Key factors shaping short-term trade outlook Negative Factors Hindering the Trade Outlook Conflict in the Middle East and the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz The ongoing conflict continues to disrupt energy flows, regional logistics, and broadergeopolitical stability. This is the current primary global trade headwind, with direct impactson energy markets and indirect consequences for global economic activity. Persistent Uncertainty in United States Trade Policy While the rollback of certain United States tariffs provides limited relief, uncertainty remainshigh due to expanding Section 301 investigations that may result in new selective tariffs.Upcoming United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement renegotiations add further uncertaintyfor North American trade patterns. Geoeconomic Competition and Fragmentation Governments are increasingly deploying export contro