全球新兴市场周报

10April2026 The View:Let'sbe strait-forward Emerging Markets WeeklyGlobal Our stance from the beginning of the war has been to be negative on EM until the USsignals that the aims have been reached; now we seem to be at this point. Even thoughtheflightislikelytobebumpy,andweneed extra riskpremium,we see EMontheascent in the months ahead. Many opportunities in rates, and selectively also in FX andEXD.-D.Hauner Asia Economics:Korea-ExpectBoKtoholdrate We expect the BoK willhold rateunchanged at 2.5% in Aprmeeting,the last meeting forGovemorRhee.Energy shock andpassthroughto CPl likelygarnermostdiscussion.Wesee limited impact on Mar CPl, but more to come.-Wu,Ho AsiaStrategy:Lacklusterflowsinto lran conflict Cumulative flows into EM Asia (ex-China)debtand equity markets by the end ofFeb-26This modest start means less vulnerability to sudden portfolio outflows.-CPiron EEMEA Economics:Hungary-Tisza's EUR aspiration If the opposition party Tisza wins the 12 April election and forms a government, it plansto formally embed euro adoption in its medium-term strategy this autumn.That wouldbe a meaningfulpositivetheme for Hungary.-MDoan EEMEAStrategy:Hungary-buythebudget David Hauner,CFAGhobal EMFI/FX StrategistMLIUKY-442079951241davidhaunerabafacam Based on our analysis of recent euro-adoption processes, investors are best positionedfora euro-adoption rally inREPHUN when: (a) there are crediblefiscal plans that-R.Adlakha ClaudioPironEmerging AsiaFi/FX StrategistMerilLyrch(Singapore)+6566780401claudo.piron@bola.com LatAmEconomics:Brazil-thescenario changed Werecently incorporated the higher oil prices into our forecasts forthe Brazilianeconomy.Underbaseline we see GDP growth at 2.3% (from 2.0%), CPl at 5.0% (from4.0%),and Selic at 13.25% (from 11.75%) in 26-D.Beker GEMs FI Surategy&EconomiesBofASSeeTeam Page lorListof Aanualysts LatAm Strategy: Peru-Long Soberanos 2037 We like tobuyFX-hedged Soberanos 2037.In our view,the magnitude of therecentselloff in Penuvian rates appears disproportionategiven that the central bank is unlikelyto hike rates and election risks seem limited.- C. Gonzolez Rojas, E Aguirre Sovereign Strategy: Argentina: Re-enter long ARGENT '35sDe-escalation in global tensions could renew Argentina's virtuous cycle thesis.Potentialcatalysts:Continued reserve accumulation, credit rating upgrades, IMF reviews.Weremain Overweight on Argentina's external debt (EXD)-LMartin,J.BrauerWeek ahead GDP in China, activity in Mexico and Brazil, CPI in Poland.CTAmonitorPaid to neutral EM rates.Short AsiaFX,mixed EEMEAand LatAmFX See pages 24-28 for a list of ouropen trades as well as those closedoverthepast12months See a list of common abbreviationstoward the end of this report. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors.Investors should have experience inrelevant markets andthefinancialresources to absorb anylosses arising fromapplying these ideas orstrategies.>> Employedbyanon-US affiliate af BofAS and isnot registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rulesRefer to'Other important Disclosures'for information on certain BotA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the infomation herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do businesswith issuers covered in itsresearchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 36 to 38.Analyst Certification on page35Valuation &Risk onpage30.12957173 The View David Hauner, CFA>MLI (UK) Let'sbestrait-forward Our stancefrom the beginning of the war has been to be negative on EMuntil the USthe flight is likely to be bumpy,and we need extra risk premium, we see EM on theascent inthemonths ahead Manyopportunities inrates,and selectivelyalso inFX andEXD. Twostepsforward, one stepbackward Key is that we find it hard to believe that Iran can keep the Strait mostly closed aftertheUS states that it reached its (other)waraims.1) Oman has temitorial waters too-apoint that matters more after the war has ended. 2) At some point even China facesenergy problems, plus slowing global export demand. 3) Eventually a closure invitesformation of a global coalitionto re-open the passage if thehigh economiccostswarrant therisks. However, market volatility likely stays elevated for a while, not least as lran has found itto bea useful tool, so we need extra risk premium and hedges.Let's not dismiss the tailthus growth and inflation, Our energy team forecasts Brent in the s9Os through theyear even if the war ends over the next month, meaning an annual average about 30%above 2025.f Rates offerbestopportunities We see several opportunities in receiving rates where we think markets price too manyhikes. Ina de-escalation sc