美元的余震

Mallika SachdevaStrategist+44-207-545-1941 There remain many points of fragility in the US-Iran ceasefire, but markets appearto be settling down with a belief that the worst of the drawdowns are behind us andequities have bottomed. This gives us an opportunity to take stock on the dollar,how it behaved, and what may come. This was not Liberation Day for the dollar.A simple analysis that looks at USDreturns during episodes of >5% drawdown in a 60-40 US equity-bond portfoliosuggests that the dollar behaved "normally" in this conflict (Figure 1). The USDdelivered positive returns as asset markets weakened, in line with the rough trendof the past 10 years. In other words, this was not Liberation Day for the dollar, whenthe USD fell alongside negative asset returns, shocking investors that may haveexpected the dollar to provide diversification for asset losses. That price action hadconsequences, with investors looking more closely at their appetite for dollar riskand increasing discussion on raising dollar hedge ratios. Figure 1: This was not Liberation Day for the dollar - more "normal" FXcorrelations were in play. But deeper foundations for the dollar in payments andsavings may have been shaken, which could have longer aftershocks 9 April 2026FX Blog But the dollar's price action in the recent conflict is little source for relief.Whilecorrelationsmay have optically behaved better,we think some structuralfoundations of the dollar have been shaken over the past few weeks: namely thedollar's long-term role in global payments, savings and trade. Last year, investors worried about the dollar's risk diversifying properties andsought to adjust exposure after the Liberation Day shock. Greater attention tohedge ratios meant that the dollar continued to weaken well after asset marketstroughed last year. This time the dollar's fundamental role in official sector savingscould be at greater risk, with deeper after shocks to consider. As the conflict settles, we share three key points of focus for the dollar long-term: 1. The foundations of the petrodollar have been shaken.We have written in depthabout how dollar dominance in payments and savings is built on the petrodollar,which in turn is a function of US security guarantees for the Gulf. In very simpleterms, the world saves in dollars because it pays for everything in dollars. Goods andservices are priced in dollars in large part because oil is priced in dollars. Oil is pricedin dollars because of an arrangement wherein the US provides security to theworld's biggest oil exporters. Our geopolitical experts now note that the "long-standing Middle East geopolitical equilibrium has been shattered" by this conflictwith the "Gulf paying the price". They see this as inevitably impacting theirrelationship with the US and driving more diversification in Gulf relations. While areshaping in the broader security relationship may take time, there are immediatesign posts for markets to heed. The Straits of Hormuz are crucial for global security– key for energy security, and for critical supplies in and out of the Gulf. A reopeningof the Straits driven by unequivocal US military and/or diplomatic success shouldbe viewed differently from a reopening enabled by meeting Iranian terms such asthe payment of tolls. One reinforces US security superiority, the other mayundermine it. Reports that these tolls may be requested in yuan or in bitcoin addfurther pressure to the dollar system. Comments from President Trump during theconflict that countries should “go get [their] own oil” and “countries of the worldthat receive oil through the Hormuz strait must take care of that passage” alsochallenges earlier assumptions about the breadth of US security commitments forfreedom of navigation in this region. 2. The world’s biggest savers may need to use their own savings.The two regionsin the world whose security risks have come to the fore in the last few weeks are theGulf and Asia – with defence and energy security respectively. Crucially, theseregions account for over 60% of central bank reserves and over 70% of sovereignwealth fund savings. Saudi Arabia had already committed under Vision 2030 to“localize over 50 percent of military equipment spending by 2030”. Theseambitions may well accelerate and be adopted more widely in the region (see here).For Asia, this conflict has laid bare the significant dependence on imported MiddleEast oil (see here). We would anticipate more investments in building domesticenergy resilience which could encompass investments in renewables and nuclear.During the conflict, Asian central banks were selling reserves to defend currencies;after the conflict, more savings may be needed for building energy resilience. Lastyear, we had focused on how shifting US commitments to NATO could impact theforeign willingness to hold USD reserves. This theme may be broadening out nowfrom Europe, to include Asia and the Gulf. 3. Long-term trade flows in energy could shift to el